Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Reid Detmers - Angels
• Run Line: Twins -1.5 155, Angels 1.5 -175
• Money Line: Twins -110, Angels -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 50%
• Los Angeles Angels - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 48.46%
• Los Angeles Angels - 51.54%

Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Los Angeles Angels are set to face off against the Minnesota Twins on April 28, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels will be looking to turn their struggling season around, as they currently hold a disappointing 10-16 record. Meanwhile, the Twins have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 12-13.

On the mound, the Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Reid Detmers, who has been impressive this season. Detmers has started five games, boasting a 3-1 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 2.12. However, his 3.31 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress going forward. The Twins, on the other hand, will likely start right-handed pitcher Pablo Lopez. Lopez has a 1-2 record this season with an average ERA of 4.39, but his 3.14 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

Detmers, a high-strikeout pitcher with a 29.6% strikeout rate, will face a Twins offense that has the most strikeouts in MLB. This matchup could give Detmers an advantage, as his strength aligns with the Twins' weakness. Similarly, Lopez, with a 27.4% strikeout rate, will be up against an Angels offense that ranks sixth in strikeouts. This could give Lopez the upper hand, as his ability to generate strikeouts plays into the Angels' weakness.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Angels rank 18th in MLB overall, with an average team performance this season. They excel in team home runs, ranking third in the league, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking 27th. The Twins, on the other hand, rank 22nd overall, with a below-average performance. They have a strong showing in team home runs, ranking seventh, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking 24th.

Both teams have below-average bullpens, with the Angels ranking 28th and the Twins ranking 23rd in MLB. This could lead to an interesting battle in the later innings, with both teams having an opportunity to capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses.

According to the current odds, the game is expected to be a close one, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. The Angels have an average implied team total of 4.00 runs, while the Twins have the same average implied team total.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Compared to the average hurler, Pablo Lopez has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an additional 3.5 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Carlos Santana has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's matchup, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.4% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Reid Detmers has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 9 opposite-handed bats in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mike Trout has been hot in recent games, whalloping 4 dingers in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak, Mike Trout).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+9.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+12.10 Units / 21% ROI)

Twins vs Angels Prediction: Twins 4.25 - Angels 4.1

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.