Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On May 13, 2024, the San Diego Padres will face off against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park in a National League West matchup. The Padres, with a season record of 22-21, are having an average season, while the struggling Rockies hold a record of 12-28.

The Padres are projected to start Randy Vasquez, a right-handed pitcher who has had an average season so far. Vasquez has started three games this year and holds a win/loss record of 0-1. His ERA stands at 4.50, but his 3.84 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Vasquez on the mound will be Dakota Hudson, another right-handed pitcher. Hudson has struggled this season with a win/loss record of 0-6 and an ERA of 6.35. However, his 5.24 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky, and there is a chance for improvement in his performance.

The Padres offense ranks 12th best in MLB this season, while the Rockies offense ranks 21st. The Padres have a slight advantage in team batting average, ranking 20th compared to the Rockies' 18th place. However, the Padres excel in team home runs, ranking 10th, and stolen bases, ranking 7th, while the Rockies struggle in both categories, ranking 24th and 30th, respectively.

Based on projections, the Padres have a higher win probability according to THE BAT X, with a projected win probability of 63% compared to the Rockies' 37%. The Padres are also the big betting favorite, with a moneyline of -205 and an implied win probability of 65%.

Overall, the Padres have the advantage in this matchup. The combination of their slightly better offense, solid bullpen, and Randy Vasquez's projected performance give them the edge. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Rockies will look to capitalize on Dakota Hudson's potential for improvement and pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Among every team playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.1) may lead us to conclude that Brendan Rodgers has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his 9.3 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Compared to the average hurler, Randy Vasquez has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -10.0 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 31 away games (+12.78 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 28 games (+8.50 Units / 26% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.62 vs San Diego Padres 4.5

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