Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On May 13, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field. This National League Central matchup showcases the Brewers, who are having a great season with a record of 24-16, against the struggling Pirates, who currently hold a record of 18-23.

The Brewers will be the home team, enjoying the advantage of their stadium as they take on the Pirates. Colin Rea, a right-handed pitcher and one of the Brewers' best starters this season, is projected to take the mound. Meanwhile, the Pirates will counter with right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller.

Rea has been impressive this year, starting seven games with a perfect 3-0 record and an outstanding ERA of 3.29. However, his 4.58 xFIP suggests that he has been fortunate and may regress in future performances. On the other hand, Keller, with a 3-3 record and a 4.41 ERA, has been somewhat unlucky based on his 3.83 xFIP, indicating that he could improve moving forward.

In terms of team performance, the Brewers possess a strong offense, ranking as the third-best in MLB this season. However, their team batting average sits at a low 27th in the league. They do excel in stolen bases, ranking 10th among all teams. The Pirates, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, with their offense ranked 27th overall. They have a low team batting average of 26th and rank 12th in stolen bases.

Considering all the factors, THE BAT X projects the Brewers to have a 53% chance of winning, favoring them over the Pirates who have a 47% chance. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

Based on the current odds, the Brewers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Pirates, on the other hand, are the underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%.

As the first game in the series, both teams will be looking to set the tone for the upcoming matchups. With the Brewers having a stronger overall record and an offense capable of producing runs, they hold an advantage heading into this game. However, the Pirates shouldn't be underestimated, especially with Mitch Keller on the mound. It's shaping up to be an intriguing and closely contested game between these two division rivals.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Mitch Keller has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 6.8% less often this year (44.4%) than he did last season (51.2%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Milwaukee's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Jack Suwinski, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Rowdy Tellez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected offense today (.317 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .329 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.38 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 112 games (+13.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+15.30 Units / 191% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.36 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.57

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