Free MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
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MLB Picks & Predictions
When it comes to finding the best site for MLB picks, ATS.io tops the list. ATS is your ultimate destination for MLB predictions, offering a wide array of valuable betting insights and resources. Our platform is known for providing expert MLB picks and predictions, ensuring that you have access to all the necessary information to make well-informed wagers and gain the ultimate betting edge every day.
MLB betting has its share of diehard fans, but the sport is well behind basketball and football in terms of betting popularity. Part of the season is the daily grind, where games are played seven days a week for months on end. The other reason is using the moneyline instead of the point spread for betting.
Many bettors feel the moneyline is too complicated, although, in actuality, it’s easier than the point spread, as you’re only interested in which teams win the game. The winning margin doesn’t come into play with the majority of baseball bets.
Can I Legally Bet on Major League Baseball?
Yes, you can legally bet on Major League Baseball (MLB) in the United States. All legal and regulated online sportsbooks offer a wide range of wagering options for MLB games. As baseball takes center stage during the summer months, it becomes a significant offering for the sports betting industry. So, if you’re a baseball fan looking to place bets on your favorite MLB teams and games, rest assured that you can do so legally and enjoy the action responsibly.
Types Of MLB Bets
There are three primary baseball wagers; the moneyline bet on the straight-up winner, the total (or over/under) and run line wagers.
Moneyline betting is the way that most people bet or make a MLB pick on Major League Baseball, the KBO, the NPB, and other leagues around the globe. This is simply picking the winner. The odds to win will largely be based on the strength of the team and the strength of that day’s starting pitcher.
On a moneyline wager, you’ll see an offering similar to:
New York Mets -130
Philadelphia Phillies +120
All this means is that you have to risk $130 to win $100 if you bet on the Mets. If you bet on the Phillies, you are asked to risk $100 to win $120.
The runline is the closest thing you’ll find to a point spread in baseball. But unlike football and basketball, where point spreads can range from 1 point to 50 or more in the case of college sports, the run line is a constant 1.5 runs and the odds will change depending on a team’s perceived chances of winning. Alternate run lines are available, but the standard is +1.5 or -1.5 based on the favorite and the underdog in the game. An underdog will be +1.5 and the odds will be dependent on how big of an underdog that team is. A favorite will be -1.5 and the odds will again be dependent on how big of a favorite that team is.
The run line on the above game would be close to:
New York Mets -1.5 +135
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-155)
Here, if you bet the Mets, N.Y. has to win by two or more runs for you to win your bet. If the Mets win by 1 run, your wager is a loss. Those betting the Phillies need Philadelphia to win the game or lose by exactly one run for them to win their bets.
MLB Total & Over/Under Betting
For total wagers, you simply add both team’s runs together. MLB sportsbooks will post a number, typically close to 8 or 9 runs, and bettors can bet more runs will be scored than that number or fewer runs will be scored than that number.
A baseball total will look like:
New York Mets 8.5 over -120
Philadelphia Phillies 8.5 under (Even)
Here, those betting the over will be asked to risk $120 to win $100, while those betting the under will be betting at even money.
MLB Prop Betting?
Most US sportsbooks now offer proposition betting on games and baseball is no exception. Most of the prop bets will be aimed at the starting pitchers and the number of strikeouts, hits allowed, etc., or the batters. For hitters, the number of hits, total bases, whether they’ll hit a home run, etc., are among the most popular wagers. Prop betting gives the bettors an additional opportunity to make a wager if they can find something they like.
Parlay betting in baseball works the same as it does in other sports in that you have to pick two or more wagers and all of them must win for you to win your wager. But baseball parlays odds do not pay out at a fixed rate as football and baseball do. Baseball parlays are calculated by the odds of each selection in your parlay. A $100 parlay on a -200 favorite and an even money team will return $200 in profits instead of the $260 a football parlay will return because the -200 favorite is given a much better chance than 50-50 to win.
Calculating moneyline parlays payouts at a parlay betting site isn’t hard but requires a little math. The first thing you need to do is convert the odds of each selection in your parlay into a decimal number. If you’re taking a favorite in your parlay, simply divide 1 by the odds. If you are using a -170 favorite in your parlay, you will have 1/1.70, which equals .5882.
Because you receive the amount of your wager back on a winning bet, the number used for calculation purposes will be 1.5882. Therefore, a bettor taking two -170 favorites will calculate the payoff by multiplying 1.5882 by 1.5882, which equals 2.522, so a $10 parlay will return a total of $25.22. Out of that $25.22, $10 is simply the return of your wager, meaning your winnings on the bet total $15.22.
When you have underdogs in your parlay, it’s easier to calculate, as you simply add 1 to the payout. A +150 underdog is calculated as 2.50, where 1.5/1 = 1.5 and the addition of 1 gives you 2.50. If you make a $10 parlay on a -170 favorite and a +150 underdog, your payout is calculated by multiplying 1.5882 by 2.50, which equals 3.970, so you’d receive $39.71, of which $29.71 is profit.
1st 5-inning Betting
In football and basketball, we have first half betting. In MLB baseball, we have “1st 5” betting. That is a MLB Pick or bet based on the outcome of the first five innings of the game. You can bet money lines, run lines (at -0.5 or +0.5 runs), and totals.
1st 5 lines are different from full-game lines. They are weighted even more heavily on starting pitchers because bullpens and relievers are generally not required that early in the game.
Totals are going to usually be about half of the full-game total, plus a little extra. A full-game total of 10 is likely to have a 1st 5 total of 5.5 or 6. A game with a total of 9 is likely to have a 1st 5 total of 5.5. The 1st 5 total is usually going to be more than half of the full-game total because it is more than half of the game.
MLB Futures Betting
Futures betting in baseball work the same as it does in any other sport. Your wagers are simply bets that will be decided at some point in the future. The most popular MLB future wagers are betting on division winners, the league champions and the World Series champion. Other bets are offered, but those are the big three for bettors and the sportsbooks.
MLB Betting Basic Strategies
Since MLB is bet using the moneyline, you’re frequently going to see small differences in the odds in any game. If one sportsbook has the Astros -118, another will likely have Houston -120. Over the course of a season, saving a few dollars here and there will add up and can be the difference between a winning season and a losing one.
By using some common sense and following a few easy guidelines, bettors can increase their chances of coming out ahead at the end of the season.
Baseball is the sport where you see more differences in the odds offered by each individual sportsbook than any other sport. For starters, some sportsbooks offer better baseball lines than others on terms of the differences in prices between the favorite and the underdog. Some will use the 15-cent line and others will use a 20-cent line, where the difference between the favorite and the underdog is greater, making it harder to come out ahead.
While nearly every sportsbook used the traditional -110 for football and basketball, it’s different in baseball. Those wagering on Major League Baseball should be betting at one of the sportsbooks that is friendlier to baseball bettors. Having several accounts at different sportsbooks will allow you to get better odds on many of your wagers.
Take Advantage of Sportsbook Bonuses
If you need another reason to have several sportsbook accounts, the sign-up bonuses are a nice way to add to your bankroll. In an effort to get you to sign-up with them, sportsbooks will offer you everything from free wagers to matching your first deposit up to a certain amount and more.
Most sportsbooks also have some sort of loyalty program to keep you betting with them. The competition among sportsbooks is one of the best things around for bettors and should be taken advantage of.
The phrase “money management” is used frequently but seldom put in play by bettors. In simple terms, it merely means maximizing the money you have set aside for your sports betting activities. While there is no set method, the most common money management technique involves betting a percentage of your bankroll on every game. The amount typically ranges from 2% to 5% of your bankroll, so if you have $1,000 in your sportsbook accounts, you’ll be betting $20 to $50. The amount seems small, but as your bankroll increases, so do the size of your bets. Likewise, if you’re losing the size of your bets will shrink even more.
The bottom line is you can’t win if you’re broke and practicing some sort of money management method will keep you from going broke more often than not.
Expert MLB Handicapping Tip: Start With the Starter
The Major League Baseball season is here and despite the cold, snowy weather in the Northeast it still feels like spring. The Expert MLB handicapper is raring and ready to go as the long grind of the baseball season provides plenty of room for profit. If you are new to betting on baseball you must learn the handicapping ropes if you want to win big.
The one thing that you need to know is that when you are looking to make MLB picks on a side (or even bet on a total) you must start at one place. That one place to begin is with starting pitching. It may seem obvious but if you are looking to win big while betting on MLB it all starts with the starting pitching. This is how the MLB oddsmakers set the line and these pitchers have the talent to overtake the game and dominate it from start to finish. Since the starting pitching is so important, the MLB expert handicapper has to make sure that they know everything about the starting pitching before they put money down on their expert MLB picks.
There are too many things to consider even with the starting pitching that the savvy handicapper always has to be on the lookout for winning angles if they want to win money while betting on baseball.
The length of the start is one thing to consider with your MLB picks or bets. A starting pitcher could pitch very well and pitch a complete game or they could get shelled and get the early hook. That outing has to be considered when making your mlb picks on that pitcher in the very next outing. For example New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole does very well after an outing where he does not last long. His teams are a perfect 10-0 in the last ten starts that he has made after a start where he went no longer than five innings. Not all pitchers will do this well, but it just shows how important it is to know the starting pitcher. The Cleveland Indians have a pitcher that does not respond well if he is not forced to throw too many pitches in his previous start. Carlos Carrasco has produced a team record of 0-12 as an underdog mlb pick when coming off a start where he threw less than 98 pitches. In this case, Carrasco has to be an underdog which would indicate he is going up against a good team and he had to have thrown less than 98 pitches in his last start, which indicates that he is not pitching well and facing a very good team. These are just two small examples of pitchers and how they perform after certain games.
As a MLB handicapper if you want to succeed it is downright vital to make sure that you know the starting pitching. While it is not the only thing to consider by far, skipping over the investigation of the starting pitching could get you into some big trouble this season.
The bottom line is that if you want to win with your MLB picks when betting on baseball you have to do your homework each and every day and it all begins with the starting pitchers!
In Game Betting – Live Betting
Without question, In-Game Live Betting is the future in the sports betting industry. As lines get tighter and there is more and more information, including all of the statistical databases for the leagues now that we’re in the era of legalization, it will be harder to find edges to make mlb picks on full-game lines. In-Game Live Betting allows you to follow along with the game and pick your spots once you’ve already seen how the game is going.
In the context of MLB, live wagering can be an extremely profitable venture. If you notice that the starting pitcher is losing his command or his fastball has lost some zip, maybe that is a good time to bet or make MLB picks against him. If one of the key middle of the order bats left with an injury and was replaced by a bench guy that is an inferior hitter, maybe that is another good time to live bet.
Live betting is great because you have the opportunity to make MLB picks based on the game flow and based on your eyes. Every pregame wager has some level of uncertainty to it. In-game wagers do as well, simply because anything can happen, but at least you can bet with a higher degree of confidence having seen what is going on.
Another benefit to live betting in a lot of sports is that the odds are simply algorithmic. The odds will be based on how much time or how many innings are left in the game, what the score is, and usually based on what the closing lines were before the game. Most live sports betting interfaces don’t take into account a player sitting down with foul trouble.
In the case of MLB specifically, managers can sometimes make some poor decisions. Maybe Terry Francona didn’t have a right-handed pitcher ready in time to face Aaron Judge in the seventh inning with two guys on. Maybe Dusty Baker is letting his starter pitch into the seventh inning even though he’s danced out of danger in each of the last two innings. Maybe Joe Maddon is unwilling to pinch hit for a batter that can’t hit righties worth a lick. These are all scenarios when you are looking for when you make a live in game MLB picks or bets.
Because the nature of baseball is so matchup-dependent, you can find good in-game betting opportunities. If Aaron Nola gives up two runs in the first inning on a walk and a home run, he’s very likely to settle in and pitch well the rest of the game. You can make free mlb picks at that point to live bet the game with.
Money lines, run lines, and totals are all available when it comes to In-Game Live Betting, so you can bet on that big comeback against a tired bullpen or bet on the team with the lead to increase it in the late innings against a team that won’t be using its best relievers while trailing.
Before the game, we have no idea how it will play out. A team may be a big favorite on the money line, but may wind up getting a bad start from the starting pitcher and trail in the late innings. Maybe that team was a big mlb betting favorite because the opposition has a poor lineup and a bad bullpen. That could be a good time to make a mlb pick and live bet the pregame favorite at a better price because the game is 4-2 in the seventh inning and the home team is trailing.
Most live betting interfaces won’t be able to tell if Alex Cora goes to Craig Kimbrel or some other reliever. But you know. And you can live bet that game and take a chance on the Boston Red Sox blowing that game without their closer. Or maybe a team is trying a young guy in a high-leverage situation in September.
Making solid MLB picks is about picking your spots is something that you should do in every betting context, whether it is full-game or in-game. It’s just easier to do during the game because you are seeing how everything is playing out in real-time. Maybe you bet one of your best MLB picks in a game expecting all of the relievers to be available, but you found out that Jordan Hicks is sick for the St Louis Cardinals and somebody else is the closer. That means that somebody else is in the eighth inning role, which means that somebody else is in the seventh inning role. All of the sudden, there are guys being asked to fill roles that they don’t normally fill.
Astute observers can take advantage when making their MLB picks of a lot of sports over the course of the season, so this is definitely something that you want to add to your MLB baseball betting repertoire.
Betting On The MLB Series
The MLB season is definitely unique compared to sports betting in the rest of pro sports leagues. Not only does the MLB schedule span 162 games, but it is the only league in which teams play their games in a series format. Every other sport seems to leave the series format to the playoffs. Not baseball.
This creates a sports betting opportunity exclusive to recreational MLB bettors and MLB expert picks alike. Most MLB sportsbooks will offer series prices before the start of a new set of games. The team that wins the best-of-three will be the team that wins the series. When it comes to those dreaded four-game series, odds will still be posted, but those bets will only be graded on the first three games.
Series betting requires punters to look into the future a little bit. You have to try to project out the lines for the games and then see if you have an edge. Let’s say that the series price for the Yankees vs. Red Sox at Fenway Park has the Red Sox as a -150 favorite, which implies a 60 percent chance that the Red Sox take two of the three games.
If Chris Sale is pitching in the first game of the series and the Red Sox are a -200 favorite, it seems likely that they will get the first game and then only need to win one of the next two games to cash that series ticket. If the New York Yankees avoid Chris Sale in that series, things become a lot tougher at that point with the drop-off behind Sale.
Modelers who make MLB expert picks have an advantage over more traditional bettors when it comes to series betting because they can calculate lines in advance based on the pitching matchup and the expected lineups. Casual bettors may have to guesstimate a little bit more to see if there is going to be value later in the series.
MLB Odds don’t appear out of nowhere in this business. A base number is created based on probability and then bettors move the numbers around based on how they believe the game will play out. You can do the same with your lines or with your projected lines and then play them out with a probability formula to see if you have an edge relative to the series price on either the underdog or the favorite.
Keep in mind that some series prices will force you to pay a lot of juice on the favorite, so it may not be the best approach for your bankroll. Similarly, it may be a better option for you to simply make a MLB pick on the underdog in the game(s) where you believe that they have the best chance instead of playing the plus money odds on winning the series. One MLB pick for example, an underdog might be +125 to win the series, but is +150 in one of those games where you thought that they had a good chance of the upset. It might make more sense to make your mlb pick on the +150 on its own.
Like all betting options, just because series odds are listed doesn’t mean that you need to bet them, but a primary component of being a successful handicapper is being able to find value whenever present. Sometimes that will be on a straight wager, a money line parlay, or a series price, but you want to keep an open mind and a diverse portfolio if you want to be a successful MLB handicapper.