With so many MLB games taking place each season, there are nearly limitless betting possibilities. A big reason for that is the availability of MLB player props, which bettors can use to wager on the performances of individual players, including hitters and pitchers all over the league. Be sure to check back here each day as we bring you our MLB betting picks for MLB prop bets today and all season long.
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MLB Prop Bets For October 12, 2024
MLB Prop Bet #1: Tarik Skubal to record the win (+150) vs Guardians
Our top MLB prop bet for Saturday is for Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers to record the win in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Cleveland Guardians. Skubal has been lights out so far this postseason, including Game 2 of this series when he pitched seven shutout innings against the Guardians. While Skubal did not get the win in that game, we expect him to have another dominant performance in this game and for the decision to go his way this time around.
How We Pick Our MLB Player Props
Each day throughout the 2024 MLB season, our MLB handicapping experts look through the prop markets to find player props that we recommend for you to bet on. But how do we decide on which props to play and which props to pass on? Below you will find information on the tools we use and the strategies we employ to come to those decisions.
Statistical Analysis
The most important thing when deciding on MLB prop bets or any other bet to make is to perform a thorough statistical analysis. This allows us to determine where there is value relative to the betting lines that sportsbooks have made available. We perform this analysis through our projection systems, which our handicapping experts use to determine where it may be favorable to place certain wagers.
While look at basic stats like batting average and ERA are good first steps, what sets us apart from your average sports bettor is that our statistical models go much deeper than that. Looking at all of the numbers that could go into a given matchup to come up with projections for each player’s statistical outputs, we leave no stone unturned in picking our MLB props each day.
Matchup Analysis
Along with running the numbers, we look closely at the matchups that each player is up against going into each game. This means evaluating a number of factors, from which pitchers are going up against which hitters, to breaking down lineups to determine which hitters are more likely to see pitches to hit and which hitters could be pitched around. We also look closely at which pitchers may be on shorter leashes than others, helping us to get a full picture of how each hurler will perform on the hill.
Ballpark Analysis
Baseball betting is unique because every ballpark is unique. Every park has different dimensions, weather patterns, and other quirks that can impact pitchers and hitters in different ways. Failure to take those differences into account can do serious damage to a bettor’s chances of winning when betting on MLB props.
Fortunately, we regularly look at the ballpark factors that will come into play for the players in each MLB matchup. This allows bettors to trust our analysis, as it is anything but cookie-cutter commentary.
Types Of MLB Player Props We Look At
There are so many different prop markets to bet on in Major League Baseball, as pitchers and hitters both have their own prop categories to choose from. Below is a little more information on the types of prop bets that we look at each day and you could see in our best MLB prop bets today.
Pitching Props
With pitchers, there are a number of statistical categories that have their own prop markets. Bettors can wager on everything from how many strikeouts a pitcher will rack up in a game to whether or not that pitcher will be credited with the win at the end of that game. Below is a list of the different MLB prop markets that are typically available for pitchers.
- Strikeouts
- Outs Recorded
- To Record a Win
- Hits Allowed
- Earned Runs Allowed
- Walks Allowed
Hitting Props
Hitters have an even longer list of prop markets that bettors can choose from. There are props such as home runs, hits, and RBI up for grabs. But that is just a small sample of the prop options for hitters, with a more comprehensive list of those props below.
- Home Runs
- Hits
- Total Bases
- RBI
- Runs Scored
- Hits + Runs + RBI
- Stolen Bases
- Strikeouts
- Singles
- Doubles
- Triples
- Walks
More Than Just MLB Player Props
Baseball bettors can find more than just MLB prop bets here at ATS. We break down the action on the diamond from all angles, including single-game bets, parlays, and futures wagers. Bettors can click on the links below to get more picks, previews, and analysis from our team of experts.
