Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

In an interleague matchup on May 13, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Washington Nationals at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, with a disappointing record of 12-29, are having a rough season, while the Nationals hold an average record of 19-20.

The White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Flexen, who has had a mediocre season so far. Flexen has started six games with a win/loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 4.29. However, his 4.89 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the Nationals are expected to start right-handed pitcher Trevor Williams, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Flexen, known for his low strikeout rate, will face a Nationals offense that ranks second in the league with the fewest strikeouts. This matchup may give the Nationals an advantage as Flexen might struggle to capitalize on his strength. Additionally, Flexen's high-flyball rate could work in his favor against a Nationals offense that lacks power.

The White Sox offense has struggled this season, ranking as the worst in MLB. They have a low team batting average and rank poorly in home runs and stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Nationals offense has been more productive, ranking sixth in team batting average but near the bottom in home runs. Their stolen base ranking is average.

In terms of bullpen strength, both teams have struggled. The White Sox bullpen ranks 26th, while the Nationals bullpen ranks last in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Based on the current odds, the White Sox have an implied win probability of 46%, while the Nationals have an implied win probability of 54%. However, THE BAT X projects the White Sox to have a 51% win probability, suggesting that there may be value in betting on the White Sox.

In their last game, the White Sox played against an unknown opponent, while the Nationals faced an unknown team. These recent matchups did not provide any notable performances or outcomes.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close matchup, with both teams having their strengths and weaknesses. With the projected win probability slightly favoring the White Sox, it will be an intriguing game to watch.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (49.4% vs. 42.3% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jacob Young has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Over his previous 3 games started, Chris Flexen has generated a substantial rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2115 rpm over the whole season to 2170 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 103 games (+12.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 54 away games (+15.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 49% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.41 vs Chicago White Sox 4.22

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