Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

In an American League matchup on May 13, 2024, the Texas Rangers will host the Cleveland Guardians at Globe Life Field. The Rangers are having an above-average season with a record of 22-20, while the Guardians are having a great season with a record of 25-16.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael Lorenzen, who has started five games this year. Lorenzen has a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.66, which is average. However, his 5.46 FIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Bibee, who has started eight games this year. Bibee has a win/loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 4.91, which is below average. However, his 3.72 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.

The Rangers offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB this season, with a strong team batting average and a high number of home runs. However, they rank 25th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Guardians offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB, with an average team batting average and a low number of home runs. However, they rank 7th in stolen bases.

According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Rangers have a win probability of 50% for this game, while the Guardians also have a win probability of 50%. The current odds favor a close game, with the Rangers having a high implied team total of 4.30 runs and the Guardians having an average implied team total of 4.20 runs.

In this matchup, Michael Lorenzen, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a Guardians offense that has the fewest strikeouts in MLB. This could give the Guardians an advantage as Lorenzen may struggle to capitalize on his strength. However, Lorenzen's high-walk rate may not be exploited by the Guardians, who rank 6th in the fewest walks in MLB, giving the pitcher a potential advantage.

On the other hand, Tanner Bibee, a high-flyball pitcher, will face a powerful Rangers offense that ranks 5th in home runs. The Rangers' power could pose a challenge for Bibee as his flyballs may turn into home runs.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close matchup between two teams with different strengths. The Rangers' offense will look to capitalize on their power, while the Guardians' offense will aim to take advantage of Lorenzen's low-strikeout rate. With both teams having a 50% win probability, it promises to be an exciting game for both fans and sports bettors alike.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Tanner Bibee will allow an average of 4.7 singles in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Tyler Freeman has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Estevan Florial hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Michael Lorenzen's sinker percentage has increased by 11.6% from last season to this one (11.8% to 23.4%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jonah Heim's footspeed has declined this season. His 25.77 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.92 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jonah Heim, the Rangers's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+14.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 77 games (+6.05 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 away games (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.62 vs Texas Rangers 4.39

Get daily MLB picks here.