Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a National League West matchup on May 13, 2024, at Oracle Park. The Giants, who currently have a below-average season with a record of 19-23, will be playing as the home team. On the other hand, the Dodgers are having a great season with a record of 27-15 and will be the away team.

The Giants are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jordan Hicks, who has a solid performance this season. Hicks has started 8 games with a win/loss record of 3-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.30. However, his 3.99 xFIP suggests that he has been fortunate this year and may face challenges in future performances.

The Dodgers will counter with right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone. While Stone has a win/loss record of 3-1 and a good ERA of 3.55, his 4.31 xFIP indicates that he may regress and perform worse in the future.

In terms of offense, the Giants rank as the 23rd best in MLB this season, while the Dodgers hold the top spot. The Giants offense ranks 21st in team batting average and 19th in team home runs. However, they struggle in terms of stolen bases, ranking 29th out of 30 teams.

On the other hand, the Dodgers boast a powerful offense, ranking first in MLB. They excel in team batting average and home runs, ranking 12th and 2nd, respectively. However, their ranking drops to 20th in stolen bases.

Considering the projections, Hicks is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.3 batters, and giving up 4.8 hits and 2.5 walks. Stone, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, striking out 4.4 batters, and giving up 4.8 hits and 1.8 walks.

The betting odds heavily favor the Dodgers, with a current moneyline of -185 and an implied win probability of 63%, while the Giants sit as underdogs with a moneyline of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%. However, THE BAT X projects the Giants with a win probability of 45% and the Dodgers with a win probability of 55%. This suggests that there may be value in betting on the Giants.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Gavin Stone has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.39 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.90 — a 1.5 K/9 disparity.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Since the start of last season, Shohei Ohtani's 19.1% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 100th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Dodgers batters as a unit place 5th- in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season when using their 9.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The San Francisco Giants infield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Wilmer Flores's speed has declined this year. His 24.44 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.73 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 77 of their last 124 games (+25.12 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 54 away games (+14.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 34 games (+7.15 Units / 21% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.02 vs San Francisco Giants 4.16

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.