Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays

May 13, 2024

Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 13, 2024
  • Venue: Fenway Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Zach Eflin - Rays
    • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rays 100, Red Sox -120
Runline: Rays 1.5 -200, Red Sox -1.5 170
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Tampa Bay Rays - 48% Tampa Bay Rays - 48.63%
Boston Red Sox - 52% Boston Red Sox - 51.37%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League East matchup, the Boston Red Sox are set to take on the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on May 13, 2024. The Red Sox, with a season record of 21-19, are having an above-average campaign, while the Rays hold a 20-21 record, indicating an average season so far.

The Red Sox will be the home team, enjoying the support of their fans at Fenway Park. The game marks the beginning of a series between these two divisional rivals, adding another layer of intrigue.

On the mound, the Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kutter Crawford, who has shown promise this season. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Crawford is considered the 62nd best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he is above average. In his eight starts this year, Crawford has achieved a Win/Loss record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 1.75. However, his 3.99 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and may regress in future performances.

Opposing Crawford, the Rays will start right-handed pitcher Zach Eflin. Eflin, ranked as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB by the advanced-stat Power Rankings, is known for his solid performance on the mound. With a record of 2-4 this season and an ERA of 3.75, Eflin can be considered a good pitcher.

Both teams boast respectable offenses, with the Red Sox ranking 11th best in MLB and the Rays ranking 17th best. However, the Red Sox excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd, while the Rays showcase their power with a 4th place ranking in team home runs. The Rays also display their base-stealing prowess, ranking 2nd in stolen bases.

As for the projected outcomes, THE BAT X predicts a close game, giving the Red Sox a 51% win probability, while the Rays hold a 49% chance of victory. The current odds also suggest a close contest, with the Red Sox favored at -120 and the Rays at +100.

With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, this game promises an exciting clash between division rivals. As the Red Sox aim to maintain their above-average season and the Rays look to elevate their average performance, all eyes will be on Fenway Park as these two AL East teams battle it out.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin's 90.8-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 14th percentile among all SPs.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Harold Ramirez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kutter Crawford.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Given that groundball hitters hold a substantial advantage over flyball pitchers, Kutter Crawford and his 40.5% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in today's matchup facing 1 opposing GB hitters.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

David Hamilton's 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+12.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+8.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.51 vs Boston Red Sox 4.37

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-103
23% TB
-117
77% BOS

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-105
36% UN
8.5/-115
64% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+160
14% TB
+1.5/-192
86% BOS

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TB
Team Stats
BOS
3.88
ERA
4.32
.230
Batting Avg Against
.252
1.20
WHIP
1.31
.282
BABIP
.302
7.7%
BB%
7.6%
24.0%
K%
22.9%
73.2%
LOB%
72.8%
.256
Batting Avg
.262
.443
SLG
.431
.770
OPS
.759
.327
OBP
.327
TB
Team Records
BOS
14-12
Home
10-13
9-10
Road
12-9
16-17
vRHP
17-15
7-5
vLHP
5-7
7-9
vs>.500
8-18
16-13
vs<.500
14-4
6-4
Last10
4-6
11-9
Last20
9-11
15-15
Last30
15-15
Z. Eflin
K. Crawford
132.1
Innings
90.0
23
GS
15
12-7
W-L
5-6
3.67
ERA
3.80
8.98
K/9
8.90
1.22
BB/9
2.20
0.95
HR/9
1.40
70.9%
LOB%
77.5%
11.8%
HR/FB%
11.6%
3.10
FIP
4.18
3.20
xFIP
4.36
.234
AVG
.234
25.2%
K%
24.2%
3.4%
BB%
6.0%
3.37
SIERA
3.95

Z. Eflin

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 NYM
Scherzer N/A
L6-10 N/A
4.1
8
6
5
3
1
54-85
4/26 COL
Marquez N/A
W10-3 N/A
6
2
1
1
3
1
61-91
4/20 COL
Marquez N/A
W9-6 N/A
5.2
8
4
2
5
0
57-86
4/15 MIA
Lopez N/A
L1-7 N/A
4
6
4
4
4
1
49-81
4/10 OAK
Jefferies N/A
L1-4 N/A
4
2
0
0
3
2
42-68

K. Crawford

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/5 CLE
Plesac N/A
L5-11 N/A
2
5
5
5
2
2
40-57

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TB BOS
TB BOS
+110
-130
-103
-117
+100
-120
-102
-118
+112
-132
-102
-116
+102
-120
-105
-113
+100
-120
+100
-120
+100
-120
+100
-120
Open
Current
Book
TB BOS
TB BOS
+1.5 (156)
-1.5 (+165)
-1.5 (+156)
+1.5 (-196)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-192)
+1.5 (155)
-1.5 (+160)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-188)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-215)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-195)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+165)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-119)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-106)
8.5 (-114)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)