St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals
  • Jose Soriano - Angels

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Los Angeles Angels will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 13, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels, who have been struggling with a record of 15-26 this season, will be the home team, while the Cardinals, with a record of 16-24, will be the away team.

The Angels are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Soriano, who has a 1-4 record and a 4.32 ERA this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Soriano is considered the #65 best starting pitcher in MLB, which is above average. He has started five games this year and is expected to pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, striking out 4.8 batters, and giving up 4.4 hits and 2.3 walks per game.

On the other side, the Cardinals will send left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore to the mound. Liberatore has a 1-1 record and a 3.54 ERA this season. However, according to our Power Rankings, Liberatore is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. He has made 14 appearances out of the bullpen and is projected to pitch around 4.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.1 batters, and giving up 4.7 hits and 1.9 walks per game.

The Angels offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average. However, they excel in the home run department, ranking 3rd in the league. Conversely, the Cardinals offense ranks as the 28th best in MLB, with a low team batting average. Nevertheless, they have shown power, ranking 5th in home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Angels to have a 52% chance of winning this game, while the Cardinals have a 48% chance. The current moneyline for both teams is set at -110, indicating that the betting markets expect a close game.

Based on the current odds, the Angels have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Cardinals have the same. THE BAT X projects the Angels to score an average of 4.53 runs, while the Cardinals are projected to score 4.59 runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Matthew Liberatore to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 70 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Arenado tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Soriano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Jose Soriano in the 75th percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Kevin Pillar is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.49 Units / 18% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 42 away games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 28% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.54 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.4

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