Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds

May 13, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 13, 2024
  • Venue: Chase Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
    • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Reds 125, D-Backs -145
Runline: Reds 1.5 -165, D-Backs -1.5 145
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Cincinnati Reds - 43% Cincinnati Reds - 43.37%
Arizona Diamondbacks - 57% Arizona Diamondbacks - 56.63%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

In an exciting National League matchup, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Cincinnati Reds at Chase Field on May 13, 2024. The game is scheduled to be a thrilling encounter between two teams with contrasting records this season.

The Diamondbacks, playing as the home team, have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 19-22. On the other hand, the Reds have struggled, with a record of 17-23, indicating a bad season for them.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who has had an average season thus far. Montgomery has started four games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.70. Despite being ranked as the #134 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Montgomery's performance is considered below average.

The Reds, as the away team, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft has had a good season with a win-loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.86. Although he is an average pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, his performance has been solid.

When analyzing the pitching matchup, Montgomery's low-strikeout and low-walk style may give him an advantage against the Reds, who have the fifth-most strikeouts in MLB and the sixth-most walks. Ashcraft, with a low-strikeout approach, may face challenges against the Diamondbacks, who have the third-fewest strikeouts in MLB.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks have performed well this season, ranking as the 10th best team in MLB. They have an average team batting average and home run ranking, but excel in stolen bases, ranking third in the league. The Reds, however, have struggled offensively, ranking as the 26th best team in MLB. They have an average team batting average and home run ranking, but lead the league in stolen bases.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Diamondbacks are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 57%. The Reds are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 43%.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

In his last outing, Graham Ashcraft didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 2 Ks.

  • A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

This year, there has been a decline in Elly De La Cruz's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.53 ft/sec last year to 29.91 ft/sec currently.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

In today's game, Will Benson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.6% rate (96th percentile).

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery has averaged 17.6 outs per start since the start of last season, grading out in the 90th percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme groundball bats like Eugenio Suarez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Graham Ashcraft.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order ranks as the 4th-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.

  • A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 107 games (+11.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 117 games (+16.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+11.65 Units / 27% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.56 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.93

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+133
11% CIN
-158
89% ARI

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-118
13% UN
8.5/-102
87% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-155
11% CIN
-1.5/+130
89% ARI

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CIN
Team Stats
ARI
4.79
ERA
4.66
.256
Batting Avg Against
.253
1.41
WHIP
1.35
.302
BABIP
.300
9.5%
BB%
8.6%
21.8%
K%
21.9%
72.5%
LOB%
70.1%
.250
Batting Avg
.254
.415
SLG
.420
.743
OPS
.742
.327
OBP
.323
CIN
Team Records
ARI
9-13
Home
11-11
10-12
Road
10-12
13-15
vRHP
15-12
6-10
vLHP
6-11
7-13
vs>.500
5-13
12-12
vs<.500
16-10
3-7
Last10
7-3
5-15
Last20
10-10
11-19
Last30
15-15
G. Ashcraft
J. Montgomery
127.0
Innings
N/A
23
GS
N/A
6-8
W-L
N/A
4.89
ERA
N/A
6.38
K/9
N/A
3.40
BB/9
N/A
1.28
HR/9
N/A
72.5%
LOB%
N/A
15.5%
HR/FB%
N/A
5.06
FIP
N/A
4.72
xFIP
N/A
.264
AVG
N/A
16.4%
K%
N/A
8.7%
BB%
N/A
4.95
SIERA
N/A

G. Ashcraft

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

J. Montgomery

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 TOR
Stripling N/A
W3-2 N/A
5
6
2
2
5
0
49-65
4/27 BAL
Wells N/A
W5-2 N/A
5.2
4
2
2
4
0
50-71
4/21 DET
Pineda N/A
L0-3 N/A
6
3
1
1
5
2
57-86
4/15 BAL
Lyles N/A
L1-2 N/A
5
3
0
0
2
2
43-71
4/10 BOS
Houck N/A
L3-4 N/A
3.1
4
3
3
4
1
38-58

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CIN ARI
CIN ARI
+125
-148
+133
-158
+124
-148
+136
-162
+126
-148
+134
-158
+123
-148
+132
-155
+122
-145
+135
-160
+120
-145
+135
-160
Open
Current
Book
CIN ARI
CIN ARI
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+133)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-156)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-156)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-167)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-167)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-125)
8.5 (+105)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+102)
8.5 (-117)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-120)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)