Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sixto Sanchez - Marlins
  • Matt Manning - Tigers

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

In an Interleague matchup on May 13, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will face off against the Miami Marlins at Comerica Park. The Tigers, with a season record of 20-20, are having an average season, while the Marlins, with a record of 11-31, are struggling with a terrible season.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Matt Manning, who has a record of 0-1 this year with an ERA of 4.24. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Manning is considered an average pitcher. On the other side, the Marlins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Sixto Sanchez, who has a record of 0-1 this year with an ERA of 7.50. Despite his struggles, the projections suggest that Sanchez is an average pitcher.

In terms of offense, the Tigers rank as the 24th best in MLB this season, with a low team batting average and a lack of home runs and stolen bases. The Marlins, on the other hand, rank as the 29th best offense in MLB, with a strong team batting average but a lack of power and stolen bases.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Tigers rank as the 16th best in MLB, while the Marlins rank as the 29th best. This could give the Tigers an advantage in the later innings of the game.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Tigers are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 56%. The Marlins, however, have a projected win probability of 44%, indicating that there may be value in betting on the underdog.

Based on the current odds, the Tigers have a higher implied team total of 4.44 runs, while the Marlins have a lower implied team total of 3.56 runs. THE BAT X projects the Tigers to score an average of 4.78 runs in this game, while the Marlins are projected to score 4.51 runs.

In terms of pitching matchups, Matt Manning, a high-flyball pitcher, could benefit from facing a Marlins offense that lacks power. On the other hand, Sixto Sanchez, a high-groundball pitcher, may find success against a Tigers offense that also struggles with power.

With the Tigers being the home team and having a higher projected win probability, they are the betting favorites with a current moneyline of -165. The Marlins, as the underdogs, have a current moneyline of +140.

As the game approaches, keep an eye on the performance of the starting pitchers and how the offenses match up. This game has the potential to be an interesting battle between two teams with contrasting strengths and weaknesses.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Sixto Sanchez to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 4 IP.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nick Fortes's true offensive talent to be a .284, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .129 disparity between that figure and his actual .155 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Miami Marlins have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Matt Manning's slider utilization has increased by 9.5% from last season to this one (31.5% to 41%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Spencer Torkelson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Detroit Tigers bats as a unit rank 24th- in the game for power since the start of last season when judging by their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.54 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Vidal Brujan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.46 vs Detroit Tigers 4.76

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