Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

In an American League West matchup, the Houston Astros are set to host the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park on May 13, 2024. The Astros, currently having a terrible season with a record of 15-25, will look to turn things around against the Athletics, who are having a below-average season with a record of 19-23.

The Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled this season with a win/loss record of 0-4 and an ERA of 8.44. However, his 4.48 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. On the other side, the Athletics will send right-handed pitcher Ross Stripling to the mound. Stripling has a win/loss record of 1-6 and an ERA of 5.14, but his 4.19 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky this season.

Arrighetti is expected to pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, striking out 5.4 batters, and giving up 4.2 hits and 1.7 walks. Stripling, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs, striking out 3.5 batters, and giving up 6.3 hits and 1.3 walks.

Offensively, the Astros rank as the 7th best team in MLB this season, with an average team batting average of .250 and ranking 9th in team home runs. The Athletics, on the other hand, rank as the 20th best team in MLB, with a team batting average of .220 and ranking 24th in team home runs. However, the Athletics excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th in MLB.

Based on the current odds, the Astros are the favorites with a moneyline of -175 and an implied win probability of 62%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Astros as the favorites with a win probability of 64%.

With the Astros having a stronger offense, a better bullpen, and the advantage of playing at home, they have a good chance of coming out on top in this game. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Athletics will look to capitalize on any opportunities to secure a victory.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Ross Stripling has a large reverse platoon split and is stuck squaring off against 6 same-handed batters in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brent Rooker's 15.5% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 94th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

In his last outing, Spencer Arrighetti conceded a monstrous 5 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Yordan Alvarez's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 25.86 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.16 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 71 games (+14.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 85 games (+9.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.80 Units / 53% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.36 vs Houston Astros 5.22

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