Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the New York Mets will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field on May 13, 2024. The Mets will be the home team for this game, while the Phillies will be the away team.

The Mets are currently having an average season with a record of 19-20. On the other hand, the Phillies are having a great season with a record of 28-13. The Phillies have been performing exceptionally well, and their offense is ranked as the second-best in MLB this season. In contrast, the Mets' offense ranks 19th in the league.

The Mets are projected to start left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea, who has a record of 2-1 this season with an ERA of 3.31. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Manaea is considered below average among starting pitchers in MLB. He has started seven games this year and is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs.

On the other side, the Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who has a record of 2-3 this season with an impressive ERA of 3.22. Sanchez is considered a good starting pitcher according to our Power Rankings. He has started seven games and is projected to pitch an average of 5.7 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs.

The Mets offense has been struggling this season, ranking 24th in team batting average and 11th in team home runs. In contrast, the Phillies offense has been dominant, ranking 8th in team batting average and 16th in team home runs.

In terms of bullpen strength, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider the Phillies bullpen as the third-best in MLB, while the Mets bullpen ranks 15th. This could be a crucial factor in the game, as both teams rely on their bullpens to close out games effectively.

Based on the current odds, the Mets have a low implied team total of 3.62 runs, while the Phillies have an average implied team total of 3.88 runs. THE BAT X projects the Mets to score 3.58 runs on average in this game, while the Phillies are projected to score 4.05 runs.

Considering the projections and the teams' performances this season, the Phillies are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 53% according to THE BAT X. However, the betting markets anticipate a close game, as the Mets' moneyline is set at +105, giving them a 47% implied win probability.

It will be an exciting matchup between these NL East rivals, and both teams will be looking to secure a victory. The Mets will rely on Sean Manaea to deliver a strong performance, while the Phillies will count on Cristopher Sanchez to continue his impressive season. Stay tuned for an action-packed game at Citi Field.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez's 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.8-mph rise from last season's 91.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Bryce Harper is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Edmundo Sosa pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea projects for 2.31 earned runs in today's outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Extreme groundball hitters like Starling Marte tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Positioned 3rd-steepest in the majors since the start of last season, New York Mets hitters as a unit have notched a 13.9° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable standard to measure power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+14.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 126 games (+8.55 Units / 5% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 37 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.89 vs New York Mets 3.39

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