Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • George Kirby - Mariners

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Seattle Mariners will take on the Kansas City Royals at T-Mobile Park on May 13, 2024. The Mariners, with a record of 22-19 this season, are having an above average year, while the Royals boast an impressive 25-17 record, indicating a great season for them. Both teams will rely on their starting pitchers to set the tone for the game, with the Mariners projected to start George Kirby and the Royals projected to start Brady Singer.

Kirby, a right-handed pitcher, has been ranked as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his eight starts this year, Kirby holds a 3-3 win/loss record with an ERA of 4.15, which is above average. However, his 3.30 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, Singer, also a right-handed pitcher, has been ranked as the 72nd best starting pitcher in MLB. He has had a strong season so far, with a 3-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.36. However, his 3.33 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky this year and may regress in future performances.

The Mariners offense ranks as the 25th best in MLB this season, while the Royals offense ranks 14th. The Mariners have an average team batting average of .240, while the Royals have an average of .252. However, the Mariners have shown some power, ranking 13th in team home runs, while the Royals rank 26th.

In terms of the bullpen, both teams are ranked in the bottom half of MLB. According to our Power Rankings, the Mariners have the 22nd best bullpen, while the Royals have the 21st best. This suggests that both teams may struggle to close out games effectively.

Based on the current odds, the Mariners are favored to win this game, with a projected win probability of 56% according to THE BAT X. However, the Royals, as underdogs, have a chance to upset the Mariners with a projected win probability of 44%. The Game Total for this matchup is currently set at 7.0 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer has used his sinker 9.2% less often this year (41.9%) than he did last season (51.1%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Hunter Renfroe's quickness has decreased this year. His 26.75 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.28 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Rating 6th-highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season, Kansas City Royals hitters jointly have posted a 13.6° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable metric to measure power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Among every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme flyball batters like Jorge Polanco usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brady Singer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 53 games (+11.16 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 72% ROI)
• Josh Rojas has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+11.00 Units / 183% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.46 vs Seattle Mariners 3.83

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.