Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

In an American League East matchup scheduled for May 13, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will be hosting the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, with an impressive record of 26-13 this season, are having a great year, while the Blue Jays have struggled with a below-average record of 18-22.

The Orioles are projected to start the talented right-handed pitcher, Corbin Burnes, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Burnes is ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Blue Jays are expected to start Jose Berrios, who is considered a below-average pitcher based on our Power Rankings.

Burnes has started eight games this year, boasting a 3-2 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.83. However, his 3.57 FIP suggests that he has been somewhat lucky this season and may not perform as well going forward. Berrios, who has also started eight games, holds a 4-3 win/loss record with an ERA of 2.85. However, his 4.26 xFIP indicates that he has also been fortunate and may regress in future performances.

In terms of offensive prowess, the Orioles rank as the 6th best team in MLB this season, showcasing their talent at the plate. They rank 14th in team batting average, 17th in home runs, and 17th in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Blue Jays rank as the 18th best team in MLB, with a strong team batting average ranking of 5th, but average rankings in home runs (15th) and stolen bases (19th).

When it comes to the bullpens, both teams have average rankings according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Orioles' bullpen is ranked 12th, while the Blue Jays' bullpen is ranked 14th.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are considered the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% chance of winning. The Blue Jays, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +145, suggesting a 40% chance of winning. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Orioles as the favorites with a 61% win probability.

The Orioles' offense has been led by their best hitter, who will be mentioned later in the article. Over the last seven games, the home team's best hitter has been Jordan Westburg, who has recorded 8 hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base, with an impressive batting average of .421 and an OPS of 1.108. The Blue Jays' best hitter over the last seven games has been Davis Schneider, who has recorded 5 hits, 4 runs, 1 home run, and 1 stolen base, with a batting average of .313 and an OPS of 1.054.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has tallied 17.8 outs per start this year, ranking in the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This year, there has been a decline in Danny Jansen's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.12 ft/sec last year to 26.42 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Toronto Blue Jays batters collectively rank near the bottom of MLB since the start of last season ( 8th-worst) when assessing their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes has utilized his cut-fastball 9.2% less often this season (46.2%) than he did last year (55.4%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Colton Cowser has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 18.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 3.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 82 games (+20.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.05 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.8

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