Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 13, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Atlanta Braves will take on the Chicago Cubs at Truist Park on May 13, 2024. The Braves, with a season record of 24-13, are having a great season and are considered the home team. On the other hand, the Cubs, with a season record of 24-17, are also having a great season and will be the away team.

The Braves are projected to start Reynaldo Lopez, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lopez is ranked as the #81 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is above average. He has started six games this year and has a Win/Loss record of 2-1 with an impressive ERA of 1.53. However, his 3.77 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward.

Opposing Lopez will be Shota Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher for the Cubs. Imanaga is ranked as the #63 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating that he is also above average. He has started seven games this year with a perfect Win/Loss record of 5-0 and an outstanding ERA of 1.08. Similar to Lopez, his 3.26 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in his performance.

The Braves have been impressive offensively this season, ranking as the #5 best team in MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. Additionally, they rank #7 in stolen bases, displaying their versatility on the basepaths. Meanwhile, the Cubs have an average offense, ranking #13 in MLB. They have a solid team batting average and rank #6 in stolen bases.

Considering the projections and rankings, the Braves are the favorites in this game with a projected win probability of 64% according to THE BAT X. The Cubs, on the other hand, have a projected win probability of 36%. The Braves have a potent offense that could pose a challenge for Imanaga, who tends to give up flyballs. However, Lopez's high walk rate could benefit the patient Cubs offense, which ranks #3 in walks in MLB.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Atlanta Braves have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Shota Imanaga today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Miguel Amaya's footspeed has declined this year. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.8 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Collectively, Chicago Cubs batters have shined when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating 7th-best in baseball.

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez's 2008-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a substantial 181-rpm drop off from last year's 2189-rpm rate.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna's true offensive talent to be a .342, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .089 gap between that mark and his actual .431 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen ranks as the 5th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games (+12.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games (+8.11 Units / 11% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+18.80 Units / 56% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4 vs Atlanta Braves 4.83

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.