Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
• Run Line: D-Backs 1.5 -185, Mariners -1.5 160
• Money Line: D-Backs 115, Mariners -135
• Total (Over/Under): 7

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 45%
• Seattle Mariners - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 44.8%
• Seattle Mariners - 55.2%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

On April 28, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a record of 15-12, are having a good season, while the D-Backs, with a record of 12-16, are struggling. This interleague matchup promises an exciting game between these two teams.

The Mariners, as the home team, will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They have been performing well this season and have shown their strength in their last game against the Diamondbacks, which they won 3-1. The Mariners' offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB, but their best hitter, Julio Rodriguez, has been making an impact with his .276 batting average and 7 stolen bases.

On the pitching side, the Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Logan Gilbert. Gilbert has been impressive this season with a 2-0 record and an excellent 1.87 ERA. However, his 3.20 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially regress in future outings. Gilbert is a high-strikeout pitcher, but he will face a D-Backs offense that ranks third in the league for the fewest strikeouts. This could pose a challenge for Gilbert as he tries to capitalize on his strength.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, will look to bounce back after their loss to the Mariners. Their offense has been performing well this season, ranking fifth in MLB. Ketel Marte has been their standout hitter, recording 23 runs, 14 RBIs, and 5 home runs with a .309 batting average and an impressive .883 OPS.

Brandon Pfaadt is projected to start for the D-Backs. Pfaadt has a 1-1 record with a below-average 4.97 ERA. However, his 3.76 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better in future games. Pfaadt is an average pitcher in terms of strikeouts, but he will face a Mariners offense that ranks 24th in the league for team batting average.

According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Mariners are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 55%. The D-Backs, as underdogs, have a projected win probability of 45%. The current moneyline reflects this close matchup, with the Mariners at -135 and the D-Backs at +115.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, both teams are expected to have a low-scoring game. THE BAT X projects the Mariners to score an average of 4.08 runs, while the D-Backs are projected to score 3.88 runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has gone to his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 55.3% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Seattle's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Out of all SPs, Logan Gilbert's fastball spin rate of 2018 rpm is in the 3rd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 131 games (+12.90 Units / 9% ROI)

D-Backs vs Mariners Prediction: D-Backs 3.88 - Mariners 4.08

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