Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 -155, Rockies 1.5 135
• Money Line: Astros -210, Rockies 180
• Total (Over/Under): 16

Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 65%
• Colorado Rockies - 35%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 67.12%
• Colorado Rockies - 32.88%

Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

In an interleague matchup scheduled for April 28, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will face off against the Houston Astros at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu. Both teams are having a tough season, with the Rockies holding a record of 7-20 and the Astros at 8-19. The Rockies are the home team for this game.

The Rockies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber, who has a 0-1 record this season with an ERA of 4.32. However, peripheral indicators such as his xERA and FIP suggest that Gomber has been lucky so far and may perform worse going forward. On the other side, the Astros are expected to start left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez, who has an excellent ERA of 2.19 this season. However, his xFIP indicates that he may not sustain this level of performance.

This game is the second in the series between these two teams, with the Rockies losing the previous game by a score of 12-4. In that game, the Rockies were a big underdog with a closing Moneyline price of +180 and an implied win probability of 34%. The Astros, as the favorite, had a closing Moneyline price of -220 and an implied win probability of 66%.

The Rockies offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB this season, while the Astros offense ranks 9th. The Rockies have struggled in key offensive categories such as team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases, while the Astros have performed better in these areas.

In their last start, Gomber pitched well, going 5 innings with 1 earned run, 2 strikeouts, 4 hits, and 3 walks. Valdez also had a strong performance in his last start, pitching 8 innings with 0 earned runs, 5 strikeouts, 6 hits, and 0 walks.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Astros are projected to have a win probability of 70% in this game, while the Rockies have a projected win probability of 30%. The current odds reflect this, with the Astros being a big betting favorite at -205 and the Rockies as a big underdog at +175.

Based on the projections, the Astros are expected to score an average of 9.10 runs in this game, while the Rockies are projected to score 5.54 runs. THE BAT X also suggests that the Astros have a 5% greater win probability than the betting market implies, indicating potential value in betting on the Astros.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Given his large reverse platoon split, Framber Valdez will benefit from being matched up with 7 bats in the projected lineup of the opposite hand today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Among every team today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Ryan McMahon will probably have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Houston Astros has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Colorado Rockies will score 5.9 runs on average in this matchup: the 2nd-most of all teams in action today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 63 games at home (+9.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 61 away games (+17.25 Units / 21% ROI)

Astros vs Rockies Prediction: Astros 9.1 - Rockies 5.9

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