Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Pick & Prediction – 4/28/2024

Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals

Apr 28, 2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

  • Date: April 28, 2024
  • Venue: LoanDepot Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
    • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -165, Marlins -1.5 145
  • Money Line: Nationals 120, Marlins -140
  • Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

  • Washington Nationals - 44%
  • Miami Marlins - 56%

Projected Win %:

  • Washington Nationals - 39.3%
  • Miami Marlins - 60.7%

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League East matchup, the Miami Marlins will face off against the Washington Nationals at LoanDepot Park on April 28, 2024. The Marlins, with a disappointing record of 6-22 this season, are having a tough time. On the other hand, the Nationals are having a below-average season with a record of 12-14.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers, who has started 5 games this year. Weathers holds a 2-2 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.16. However, his 4.50 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse in the future.

The Nationals, meanwhile, are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin. Corbin has struggled this season with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 6.51. However, his 4.43 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could potentially perform better going forward.

Weathers is a low-strikeout pitcher, facing a Nationals offense that has the second fewest strikeouts in MLB. This could give the Nationals an advantage, as Weathers may have a harder time capitalizing on his biggest strength. However, Weathers is also a high-groundball pitcher, and the Nationals have a lack of power with the second fewest home runs in MLB. This matchup could work in favor of the Nationals, as their lack of power may not matter as much against a pitcher who keeps the ball on the ground.

The Marlins offense ranks as the 29th best in MLB this season, indicating a struggling lineup. However, they do have the third-best team batting average. The Nationals offense, on the other hand, ranks 23rd in MLB and has the sixth-best team batting average. Both teams have struggled in terms of home runs and stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Marlins are the betting favorite with an implied win probability of 56%. The Nationals, as the underdog, have an implied win probability of 44%. The Marlins have a higher implied team total of 4.54 runs compared to the Nationals' 3.96 runs.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between struggling teams. The Marlins will look to capitalize on their strong batting average, while the Nationals aim to take advantage of their low-strikeout offense against Weathers. With both teams having below-average records and struggling bullpens, it could be an unpredictable and exciting game to watch.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Patrick Corbin will tally an average of 16.5 outs in this outing.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

CJ Abrams has been hot recently, notching 3 homers in the last 14 days.

  • Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

With 7 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Ryan Weathers will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Luis Arraez is projected as the best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Avisail Garcia hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 137 games (+18.25 Units / 13% ROI)

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction: Nationals 4.32 - Marlins 5.16

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+115
25% WSH
-137
75% MIA

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-115
35% UN
8.5/-105
65% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-175
28% WSH
-1.5/+145
72% MIA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
WSH
Team Stats
MIA
4.88
ERA
4.18
.265
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.45
WHIP
1.28
.300
BABIP
.302
9.4%
BB%
8.3%
19.5%
K%
25.2%
72.7%
LOB%
72.5%
.259
Batting Avg
.262
.400
SLG
.402
.719
OPS
.719
.319
OBP
.317
WSH
Team Records
MIA
17-19
Home
15-27
20-20
Road
11-23
26-30
vRHP
22-27
11-9
vLHP
4-23
15-19
vs>.500
11-21
22-20
vs<.500
15-29
6-4
Last10
3-7
11-9
Last20
7-13
16-14
Last30
12-18
P. Corbin
R. Weathers
137.1
Innings
N/A
24
GS
N/A
7-11
W-L
N/A
4.85
ERA
N/A
5.96
K/9
N/A
2.88
BB/9
N/A
1.57
HR/9
N/A
71.8%
LOB%
N/A
16.7%
HR/FB%
N/A
5.24
FIP
N/A
4.69
xFIP
N/A
.289
AVG
N/A
15.0%
K%
N/A
7.2%
BB%
N/A
5.02
SIERA
N/A

P. Corbin

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 COL
Gomber N/A
L2-5 N/A
8
9
5
3
3
0
70-94
4/28 MIA
Rogers N/A
L2-3 N/A
6
4
3
2
8
2
62-90
4/22 SF
Long N/A
L1-7 N/A
1.2
7
7
7
4
3
34-60
4/17 PIT
Quintana N/A
L3-5 N/A
5.1
3
2
2
4
3
54-92
4/12 ATL
Elder N/A
L4-16 N/A
2.2
9
6
6
3
3
50-83

R. Weathers

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/29 LAD
Scherzer N/A
L9-11 N/A
3
5
5
5
2
3
37-62
8/28 LAA
Suarez N/A
L2-10 N/A
3
4
3
3
1
0
33-54
8/16 COL
Senzatela N/A
L5-6 N/A
4
8
5
5
3
0
41-62
8/11 MIA
Alcantara N/A
L0-7 N/A
4.2
7
6
6
7
1
56-84
8/6 ARI
Smith N/A
L5-8 N/A
3
7
6
6
1
1
42-57

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
WSH MIA
WSH MIA
Consensus
+120
-148
+115
-137
+120
-142
+114
-135
+126
-148
+116
-136
+123
-143
+117
-137
+122
-145
+115
-135
+125
-150
+115
-140
+115
-140
+115
-135
Open
Current
Book
WSH MIA
WSH MIA
Consensus
+1.5 (-188)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-188)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-188)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-188)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+150)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-118)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)