Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays
• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 110, Blue Jays 1.5 -130
• Money Line: Dodgers -150, Blue Jays 130
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 58%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 42%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 58.19%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 41.81%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in an Interleague matchup on April 27, 2024, at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, with a record of 13-14 this season, are having a below-average season, while the Dodgers, with a record of 17-11, are having a great season.

On the mound, the Blue Jays are projected to start left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, who has a record of 2-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.28 this year. However, his advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that he is the #78 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward. Kikuchi is a high-groundball pitcher, which could pose a challenge for the powerful Dodgers offense, who rank second in MLB in home runs this season.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow. With a record of 4-1 and an ERA of 2.92, Glasnow has been excellent this season. According to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is the #8 best starting pitcher in MLB. However, he is projected to allow a high number of hits and walks today, which could give the Blue Jays an opportunity to capitalize.

The Blue Jays offense ranks as the 17th best in MLB this season, while the Dodgers offense ranks as the 2nd best. The Blue Jays have a solid team batting average, ranking 5th in MLB, but their home run and stolen base rankings are average. The Dodgers, on the other hand, excel in team batting average and home runs but rank low in stolen bases.

With the current odds, the Blue Jays are the underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%. The Dodgers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. The Blue Jays have a low implied team total of 3.65 runs, while the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 4.35 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tyler Glasnow has averaged 92.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Miguel Rojas will hold the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Yusei Kikuchi in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Notching 6 home runs in the last two weeks' worth of games, Daulton Varsho has been on fire lately.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games at home (+9.24 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 62 away games (+16.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Tyler Glasnow has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Dodgers vs Blue Jays Prediction: Dodgers 4.86 - Blue Jays 3.84

Get daily MLB picks here.