Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals

May 9, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels
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Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 9, 2024
  • Venue: Angel Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Michael Wacha - Royals
    • Reid Detmers - Angels

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Royals -120, Angels 100
Runline: Royals -1.5 145, Angels 1.5 -165
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -105

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Kansas City Royals - 52% Kansas City Royals - 51.38%
Los Angeles Angels - 48% Los Angeles Angels - 48.62%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

In a matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals, the game is scheduled to take place on May 9, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels will be the home team, while the Royals will be the away team. This American League showdown is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Angels are having a tough season with a record of 14-23. On the other hand, the Royals are having a great season with a record of 22-16. The Angels will be looking to turn their season around, while the Royals aim to continue their winning ways.

The projected starting pitcher for the Angels is Reid Detmers, a left-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Detmers is the #98 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an average pitcher. He has started seven games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-3. Detmers' ERA stands at 4.24, which is slightly above average. However, his 3.56 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Royals are projected to start Michael Wacha, a right-handed pitcher. Wacha is considered a below-average pitcher according to our Power Rankings. He has started seven games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-4. Wacha's ERA is 5.50, which is not ideal. However, his 4.08 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Angels rank 15th in MLB, while the Royals rank 18th. The Angels have a strong home run-hitting team, ranking 3rd in the league in home runs. However, their stolen base ranking is low, coming in at 27th. On the other hand, the Royals have a solid stolen base ranking, sitting at 4th in the league. However, their home run ranking is lower, at 26th.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring game. The Angels have an implied team total of 4.20 runs, while the Royals have a slightly higher implied team total of 4.30 runs.

Considering the projections and rankings, the Royals have a slight edge in this game. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Angels will look to defy the odds and turn their season around with a strong performance at home.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Michael Wacha must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 60.7% of the time, checking in at the 79th percentile.

  • A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Today, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.8% rate (98th percentile).

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Reid Detmers's 2155-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 17th percentile among all SPs.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today’s version of the Angels projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.

  • Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+11.19 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+9.10 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.63 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.24

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