St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 9, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League Central matchup, the Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field on May 9, 2024. The Brewers, with a season record of 21-15, are having a great season, while the struggling Cardinals hold a record of 15-21.

Taking the mound for the Brewers is the right-handed pitcher Tobias Myers, who is projected to start. Myers has had a tough season so far, with an ERA of 6.23, which is considered horrible. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Myers is ranked as the #289 best starting pitcher in MLB.

On the other side, the Cardinals will rely on their ace, right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray. Gray has been excellent this season, with an ERA of 0.89. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Gray is ranked as the #8 best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Brewers have the #3 best offense in MLB, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks #27, indicating room for improvement. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking #28 overall. However, their team batting average ranks #7, showcasing their potential.

Looking at the betting odds, the Brewers are listed at +105 with an implied win probability of 47%, while the Cardinals are listed at -125 with an implied win probability of 53%. This suggests that the betting markets expect a close game.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, and this matchup presents an intriguing clash between a struggling Cardinals offense and a talented Brewers team. With Gray's elite pitching and the Brewers' strong bullpen, this game could be a low-scoring affair. However, the Brewers' offense, despite their lower team batting average, has shown power and the ability to produce runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Among all SPs, Sonny Gray's fastball spin rate of 2543 rpm grades out in the 97th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tobias Myers has averaged 81.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 19th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This season, there has been a decline in Blake Perkins's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.02 ft/sec last year to 28.97 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Milwaukee's 88.3-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in baseball: #25 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.08 Units / 17% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 42 away games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 40% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.78 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.82

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.