Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 9, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins will host the Seattle Mariners in an American League matchup at Target Field on May 9, 2024. The Twins, with a season record of 21-15, are having a great season, while the Mariners, with a record of 20-17, are having an above-average season.

The Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Pablo Lopez, who is ranked as the #13 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lopez has started 7 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 4.30. However, his 2.87 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Logan Gilbert, who is ranked as the #36 best starting pitcher in MLB. Gilbert has started 7 games this year, with a perfect 3-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.69. However, his 3.29 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may not perform as well in the future.

Lopez is a high-strikeout pitcher, with a strikeout rate of 30.2%, facing a high-strikeout Mariners offense, which has the second-most strikeouts in MLB. This matchup may give Lopez an advantage since his strength aligns with the Mariners' weakness.

Similarly, Gilbert is a high-strikeout pitcher, with a strikeout rate of 28.3%, facing a high-strikeout Twins offense, which has the most strikeouts in MLB. This matchup may give Gilbert an advantage since his strength aligns with the Twins' weakness.

The Twins offense ranks as the 12th best in MLB this season, with an average ranking. They excel in the home run department, ranking 7th in team home runs. However, their team batting average ranks 22nd, indicating room for improvement. The Mariners offense ranks as the 21st best in MLB, with a below-average ranking. Their team batting average ranks 24th.

In terms of bullpens, the Twins have the 6th best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mariners rank 21st. This gives the Twins an advantage in the late innings.

According to the current odds, the Twins are favored to win this game with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability. The Mariners, with a moneyline of +110, have a 46% win probability. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 7.0 runs, which is relatively low.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Out of all starting pitchers, Logan Gilbert's fastball spin rate of 2008 rpm ranks in the 2nd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Josh Rojas has been lucky this year, putting up a .412 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .298 — a .114 disparity.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pablo Lopez is expected to post an average of 17 outs in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Alex Kirilloff is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Edouard Julien has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will be challenged by MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 76 games (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 away games (+10.89 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.65 vs Minnesota Twins 4.08

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