Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 9, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On May 9, 2024, an exciting American League matchup is set to take place at Yankee Stadium. The New York Yankees will be hosting the Houston Astros in the third game of their series. The Yankees have been having a great season so far, boasting a record of 25-13, while the Astros have struggled with a 12-24 record.

The Yankees will be looking to continue their winning ways, and they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Marcus Stroman. Stroman has been performing well this season with a 2-1 record and an impressive ERA of 3.41. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Stroman is considered above average among MLB starting pitchers.

On the other hand, the Astros will send Ronel Blanco to the mound. Blanco has had a strong start to the season, with a 3-0 record but an ERA of 2.09. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that Blanco is one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

In terms of offensive firepower, the Yankees have been impressive, ranking as the fourth-best offense in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks poorly at 29th. The Astros, on the other hand, have a solid offense, ranking ninth overall.

The Yankees' best hitter this season has been Aaron Judge, who has been on fire over the last seven games. In that span, he has recorded 9 hits, 6 runs, 6 RBIs, 2 home runs, and 1 stolen base, with a batting average of .450 and an OPS of 1.510. For the Astros, Jake Meyers has been their standout hitter over the last seven games, with a .357 batting average and a 1.080 OPS.

According to the current odds, the Yankees are favored to win this game with a moneyline set at -135, giving them an implied win probability of 55%. The Astros, with a moneyline of +115, have an implied win probability of 45%.

With the Yankees having a higher projected win probability than their implied win probability, the odds suggest that this will be a closely contested game. Both teams will be looking to capitalize on their strengths and secure a victory in this exciting matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco has notched a 12.4% Swinging Strike percentage this year, checking in at the 78th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Yordan Alvarez's speed has declined this season. His 25.86 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.64 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 7th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher (52.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #7 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (35.9) may lead us to conclude that Austin Wells has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 20.0 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The New York Yankees projected batting order ranks as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 53 away games (+17.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.40 Units / 44% ROI)

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.66 vs New York Yankees 5.55

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