San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 9, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keaton Winn - Giants
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

On May 9, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will take on the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field. This National League West matchup features the struggling Rockies, who hold a record of 8-28 this season, against the Giants, who are having a tough season with a record of 17-21.

The Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cal Quantrill, who has had a mediocre season so far. Quantrill has started seven games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.31. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Quantrill is ranked as the #213 best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Giants are projected to start right-handed pitcher Keaton Winn. Winn has started seven games this season, with a win-loss record of 3-4 and an ERA of 4.41. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Winn is considered an average pitcher.

In terms of offense, the Rockies rank as the #25 best in MLB this season, while the Giants rank as the #22 best. The Rockies have struggled in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking #18 and #30 respectively. The Giants have had a tough time in team batting average and stolen bases as well, ranking #21 and #29 respectively.

When it comes to bullpen strength, the Giants have the #1 ranked bullpen in MLB, while the Rockies rank #18. This could give the Giants an advantage in the late innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Giants are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 59%. The Rockies, as the underdogs, have an implied win probability of 41%. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 9.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Keaton Winn's 95-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 88th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Thairo Estrada has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The San Francisco Giants have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heliot Ramos, Mike Yastrzemski, Matt Chapman, Jakson Reetz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Compared to average, Cal Quantrill has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 3.3 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Elias Diaz's footspeed has declined this season. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.29 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Colorado Rockies hitters as a group rank near the cellar of MLB since the start of last season ( 3rd-worst) as far as their 87.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+11.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 72 of their last 114 games (+26.02 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.35 Units / 43% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.06 vs Colorado Rockies 4.18

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