Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 9, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated American League Central matchup, the Cleveland Guardians will face off against the struggling Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. The game is scheduled for May 9, 2024.

The Chicago White Sox, currently with a disappointing record of 9-28 this season, are enduring a challenging campaign. However, they hope to turn things around as they take the field as the home team. On the other hand, the Cleveland Guardians are having a fantastic season with a record of 24-13, positioning them as one of the top teams in the league.

Erick Fedde, a right-handed pitcher, is expected to start for the White Sox. Despite being ranked as an average starting pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Fedde has shown promise this year with a 2-0 win/loss record and an impressive 3.46 ERA. However, his 4.53 FIP suggests that he may be due for some regression in his performance.

Meanwhile, Ben Lively, another right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Guardians. Lively has had an excellent season so far, with a 1-1 win/loss record and an impressive 2.08 ERA. However, his 3.31 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some luck and could see a decline in his performance going forward.

This game marks the first matchup between these two teams in the series. In their last games, the White Sox defeated the Rays 4-1, overcoming the odds as a big underdog with a closing Moneyline price of +215. The Guardians, on the other hand, secured a narrow 5-4 victory against the Tigers, expected to be a close game with a closing Moneyline price of -125.

Offensively, the White Sox have struggled this season, ranking as the worst team in MLB. Their offense has lacked consistency, ranking poorly in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. In contrast, the Guardians possess an average offense, ranking 14th in MLB in various offensive categories.

The White Sox bullpen has been struggling, ranking as the 27th best in MLB according to our Power Rankings. In contrast, the Guardians have one of the best bullpens in the league, ranked 4th. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.

Gavin Sheets has emerged as the White Sox's best hitter this season, while Jose Ramirez has been leading the charge for the Guardians. They will look to provide the offensive firepower for their respective teams in this matchup.

Considering the projected win probabilities, THE BAT X projects a 48% chance of victory for the White Sox, while the Guardians have a 52% chance. However, THE BAT X suggests there may be value in betting on the White Sox, with their win probability 8% greater than the implied win probability. The current moneyline odds also make the Guardians the betting favorites.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the best among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Josh Naylor's speed has fallen off this year. His 25.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.72 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Tallying 92.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Erick Fedde checks in at the 84th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Paul DeJong is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Cleveland (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Chicago White Sox offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 107 games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 116 games (+8.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 36 games (+12.20 Units / 34% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.37 vs Chicago White Sox 3.78

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