Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners Prediction For 4/27/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks

Apr 27, 2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

  • Date: April 27, 2024
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs
    • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Run Line: D-Backs 1.5 -155, Mariners -1.5 135
  • Money Line: D-Backs 135, Mariners -155
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

  • Arizona Diamondbacks - 41%
  • Seattle Mariners - 59%

Projected Win %:

  • Arizona Diamondbacks - 40.57%
  • Seattle Mariners - 59.43%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

On April 27, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in an Interleague matchup at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a record of 14-12, are having an above-average season, while the struggling Diamondbacks hold a record of 12-15.

The Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher George Kirby, who has shown promise according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, ranking as the #25 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. Kirby has started five games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 5.33. However, his 3.41 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi. Cecconi, although considered a bad pitcher by MLB standards, has started one game this year, with a win-loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 3.00. However, his 4.71 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

The Mariners' offense ranks as the #23 best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average ranking of #24. They rank #13 in team home runs and #18 in team stolen bases. In contrast, the Diamondbacks' offense ranks as the #5 best in MLB, with an average team batting average ranking of #11. They rank #19 in team home runs and #3 in team stolen bases.

With the Mariners being the home team, they hold the advantage in this matchup. However, the Diamondbacks' offense, led by their best hitter Joc Pederson over the last seven games, has been performing well. The Mariners' best hitter over the same period has been Cal Raleigh, who has shown great power and consistency.

Considering the projections and the current odds, the Mariners are favored to win this game with a moneyline of -160, giving them an implied win probability of 60%. The Diamondbacks, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +140, with an implied win probability of 40%.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Slade Cecconi was rolling in his previous game started and gave up 2 ER.

  • A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

In the last 14 days, Joc Pederson has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .432.

  • Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that George Kirby will post an average of 17.3 outs in this matchup.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 11th-best hitter in the league when it comes to his batting average talent.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 55 games (+9.81 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 126 games (+11.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+11.65 Units / 83% ROI)

D-Backs vs Mariners Prediction: D-Backs 3.71 - Mariners 4.29

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+128
17% ARI
-153
83% SEA

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/+102
45% UN
7.0/-122
55% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-175
29% ARI
-1.5/+145
71% SEA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
ARI
Team Stats
SEA
4.66
ERA
3.72
.253
Batting Avg Against
.233
1.35
WHIP
1.18
.300
BABIP
.287
8.6%
BB%
7.0%
21.9%
K%
24.6%
70.1%
LOB%
72.3%
.254
Batting Avg
.237
.420
SLG
.403
.742
OPS
.719
.323
OBP
.315
ARI
Team Records
SEA
19-18
Home
27-12
19-21
Road
18-22
26-24
vRHP
31-24
12-15
vLHP
14-10
13-20
vs>.500
14-19
25-19
vs<.500
31-15
6-4
Last10
6-4
13-7
Last20
13-7
16-14
Last30
18-12
S. Cecconi
G. Kirby
6.1
Innings
144.2
1
GS
23
0-0
W-L
10-8
2.84
ERA
3.11
4.26
K/9
8.15
1.42
BB/9
0.87
0.00
HR/9
0.93
71.4%
LOB%
75.8%
0.0%
HR/FB%
9.7%
3.27
FIP
3.18
4.82
xFIP
3.57
.217
AVG
.238
12.0%
K%
23.0%
4.0%
BB%
2.5%
4.48
SIERA
3.65

S. Cecconi

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

G. Kirby

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
ARI SEA
ARI SEA
Consensus
+136
-162
+128
-153
+136
-162
+130
-155
+136
-162
+132
-156
+138
-162
+128
-150
+140
-165
+130
-155
+130
-160
+130
-160
+140
-165
+130
-155
Open
Current
Book
ARI SEA
ARI SEA
Consensus
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+134)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+134)
+1.5 (-164)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-186)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-186)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-104)
7.0 (-121)
7.0 (+100)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-102)
7.0 (-122)
7.0 (+102)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-122)
7.0 (+100)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-104)
7.0 (-121)
7.0 (+100)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)