Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Martin Perez - Pirates
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
• Run Line: Pirates 1.5 -170, Giants -1.5 150
• Money Line: Pirates 125, Giants -150
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 43%
• San Francisco Giants - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 38.66%
• San Francisco Giants - 61.34%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup scheduled for April 27, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will play host to the Pittsburgh Pirates at Oracle Park. The Giants, with a below-average season record of 12-14, will aim to improve their performance against the Pirates, who have had an average season with a record of 13-13.

The Giants are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jordan Hicks, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hicks is ranked as the #45 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Pirates are projected to start left-handed pitcher Martin Perez, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our Power Rankings.

Hicks has started five games this year, maintaining an impressive win/loss record of 2-0. His ERA stands at 1.61, indicating excellent performance. However, his 4.44 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may experience a decline in performance going forward. Perez, with a record of 1-1, has an ERA of 3.45, which is considered great. However, his 4.30 xFIP indicates that he may not be able to sustain this level of performance.

The Giants offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB this season, while the Pirates offense ranks 21st. The Giants have struggled with their team batting average, ranking 26th in MLB, but have an average ranking in terms of home runs. The Pirates, on the other hand, have a low ranking in team batting average but an average ranking in team home runs.

In terms of bullpen strength, both teams rank among the top in MLB. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider the Giants bullpen as the 2nd best, while the Pirates bullpen is ranked 4th.

Based on the current odds, the Giants are favored to win with a moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 57%. The Pirates are the underdogs with a moneyline of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between a Giants team looking to improve their below-average season and a Pirates team aiming to maintain their average performance. With the Giants having the advantage in starting pitcher performance and a stronger bullpen, they have a higher projected win probability. However, the Pirates cannot be underestimated, as anything can happen in baseball. It will be an exciting game to watch at Oracle Park.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Rowdy Tellez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jack Suwinski, Michael A. Taylor, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jordan Hicks will surrender an average of 2.01 earned runs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

With a .264 wOBA in the last 14 days, Wilmer Flores has been struggling at the plate.

• Recent struggles may mean the player is not seeing the ball well, is playing hurt, or has something going on that will hamper him in the short-term.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 78 of their last 126 games (+24.97 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 84 games (+13.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Nick Ahmed has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Pirates vs Giants Prediction: Pirates 3.77 - Giants 4.56

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