Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 -150, Rockies 1.5 130
• Money Line: Astros -215, Rockies 185
• Total (Over/Under): 17

Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 66%
• Colorado Rockies - 34%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 59.6%
• Colorado Rockies - 40.4%

Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

On April 27, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will face off against the Houston Astros at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu. This interleague matchup features two struggling teams with identical records of 7-19 this season. The Rockies are having a terrible season, as are the Astros.

The Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cal Quantrill, who has had a rough start to the season. Quantrill has a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 4.33, which is considered average. However, his 5.20 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward. On the other side, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ronel Blanco, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

In terms of offense, the Rockies rank as the 20th best team in MLB, while the Astros rank 8th. The Rockies have struggled in key offensive categories, ranking 24th in home runs and dead last in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Astros have been solid, ranking 9th in home runs and 12th in stolen bases.

Considering the pitching matchup, Quantrill's low strikeout rate may give the Astros an advantage, as they have the 5th fewest strikeouts in MLB. Blanco's high walk rate may not be exploited by the impatient Rockies offense, which ranks 5th in the fewest walks.

According to the current odds, the Astros are the clear favorites with an implied win probability of 65%, while the Rockies are the underdogs with a 35% chance of winning. The Rockies have a high implied team total of 7.03 runs, while the Astros have an even higher implied team total of 9.97 runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Colorado (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill has averaged 92.6 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Charlie Blackmon will hold the platoon advantage over Ronel Blanco in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to tally the 2nd-most runs (6.21 on average) of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 63 games at home (+9.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 50 away games (+20.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+7.40 Units / 30% ROI)

Astros vs Rockies Prediction: Astros 8.04 - Rockies 6.21

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