Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
• Run Line: Nationals 1.5 -180, Marlins -1.5 155
• Money Line: Nationals 115, Marlins -140
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 44%
• Miami Marlins - 56%

Projected Win %:

• Washington Nationals - 35.13%
• Miami Marlins - 64.87%

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

The Miami Marlins are set to face off against the Washington Nationals in a National League East matchup on April 27, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, who have been struggling this season with a record of 6-21, will be looking to turn things around as the home team. On the other hand, the Nationals, with a record of 11-14, are also having a challenging season.

Edward Cabrera, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Marlins, while the Nationals are expected to start Mitchell Parker, a left-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Cabrera is considered the 59th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his talent on the mound. In contrast, Parker is not ranked favorably by MLB standards.

In their last game, the Marlins faced the Nationals and suffered a 3-1 loss. The Marlins had a closing Moneyline price of -125, suggesting that the game was expected to be close. The Nationals, with a closing Moneyline price of +105, emerged victorious. The Marlins' offense has been struggling this season, ranking as the 29th best in MLB. However, they do have the 3rd best team batting average.

Cabrera has started two games this year, with a 1-0 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.27. His xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 2.27 suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. Parker, on the other hand, has started two games with a 2-0 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 1.50. However, his xFIP of 2.41 indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

The Marlins' bullpen is ranked 27th in MLB, while the Nationals' bullpen is ranked 30th, suggesting that both teams have struggled in relief pitching. Bryan De La Cruz has been the Marlins' best hitter this season, while CJ Abrams has stood out as the Nationals' top hitter.

According to the current odds, the Marlins are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Marlins to have a win probability of 64%. These projections suggest that there may be value in betting on the Marlins.

Overall, the Marlins will be looking to bounce back from their recent loss and improve their season record. The Nationals, however, will aim to build on their previous victory and continue their pursuit of a better standing in the National League East. With Cabrera's skill on the mound and the Marlins' offensive struggles, this game could be a closely contested matchup between the two teams.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Given his large reverse platoon split, Mitchell Parker will benefit from going up against 7 bats in the projected offense who hit from the other side in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball batters like Joey Gallo generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Edward Cabrera.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Joey Gallo is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.1% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Avisail Garcia is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+6.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 92 games (+19.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Joey Meneses has only hit the Hits Over in 3 of his last 5 games (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction: Nationals 3.65 - Marlins 4.76

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.