St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets Best Bet – 4/27/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals

Apr 27, 2024

New York Mets

New York Mets
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

  • Date: April 27, 2024
  • Venue: Citi Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
    • Adrian Houser - Mets
  • Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 130, Mets 1.5 -150
  • Money Line: Cardinals -130, Mets 110
  • Total (Over/Under): 7.5

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

  • St. Louis Cardinals - 54%
  • New York Mets - 46%

Projected Win %:

  • St. Louis Cardinals - 55.52%
  • New York Mets - 44.48%

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the New York Mets will take on the St. Louis Cardinals on April 27, 2024, at Citi Field. The Mets, with a season record of 13-12, are having an above-average season, while the Cardinals, with a record of 12-14, are having a below-average season.

The Mets will be the home team for this game, playing in front of their home crowd at Citi Field. They will look to capitalize on their offensive prowess, as they currently rank as the 10th best offense in MLB this season. However, their team batting average ranks 24th in the league, indicating room for improvement in that area. The Mets are also known for their power, ranking 11th in team home runs and have an average ranking in stolen bases.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have struggled offensively this season, ranking as the 27th best offense in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks 7th in the league, showcasing their ability to hit for average. The Cardinals also excel in the power department, ranking 5th in team home runs. However, their ranking in stolen bases is lower, sitting at 23rd.

The pitching matchup for this game is intriguing. The Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Adrian Houser, who has had a challenging season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Houser is ranked 176th out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating that he has struggled. He has started four games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 7.45, which is considered horrible. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will start right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray, who has been exceptional this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gray is ranked 10th out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating that he is an elite pitcher. He has started three games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 1.04. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may regress slightly in his performance.

The Mets will rely on their bullpen, which is considered average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Cardinals boast the best bullpen in MLB, according to the same rankings.

With the game total set at 7.5 runs, it is expected to be a low-scoring affair. The Mets have a lower implied team total of 3.57 runs, while the Cardinals have an average implied team total of 3.93 runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray projects to average 1.92 earned runs in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Willson Contreras has been hot of late, tallying a .407 wOBA in the last two weeks.

  • Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Adrian Houser in the 5th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Jeff McNeil's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Brett Baty has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games at home (+15.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 54 away games (+7.53 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has only hit the Total Bases Under in 3 of his last 5 games (-0.05 Units / -1% ROI)

Cardinals vs Mets Prediction: Cardinals 4 - Mets 3.36

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-137
65% STL
+115
35% NYM

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-110
13% UN
7.5/-110
87% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+124
86% STL
+1.5/-148
14% NYM

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
STL
Team Stats
NYM
4.59
ERA
4.55
.268
Batting Avg Against
.248
1.43
WHIP
1.38
.322
BABIP
.297
8.3%
BB%
9.9%
20.4%
K%
22.5%
69.8%
LOB%
72.3%
.259
Batting Avg
.236
.436
SLG
.399
.770
OPS
.715
.333
OBP
.317
STL
Team Records
NYM
19-15
Home
18-23
19-22
Road
18-16
26-28
vRHP
26-27
12-9
vLHP
10-12
11-15
vs>.500
15-20
27-22
vs<.500
21-19
7-3
Last10
8-2
11-9
Last20
14-6
18-12
Last30
16-14
S. Gray
A. Houser
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

S. Gray

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/16 BOS
Houck N/A
L0-4 N/A
1.2
1
2
2
1
1
16-31
4/9 SEA
Gilbert N/A
L3-4 N/A
4.2
4
2
2
4
2
52-76
9/29 CHW
Rodon N/A
L1-6 N/A
4.2
5
5
5
6
2
51-86
9/24 WSH
Espino N/A
W8-7 N/A
4
5
4
4
3
4
52-88
9/18 LAD
Scherzer N/A
L1-5 N/A
6
4
4
3
5
2
49-75

A. Houser

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/29 CHC
Hendricks N/A
W11-1 N/A
6
2
0
0
6
3
64-101
4/23 PHI
Wheeler N/A
W5-3 N/A
6
5
3
3
3
1
58-85
4/16 STL
Matz N/A
L1-2 N/A
5.2
4
1
1
4
3
54-97
4/11 BAL
Zimmermann N/A
L0-2 N/A
3.2
4
2
2
3
3
43-76
9/29 STL
Mikolas N/A
W4-0 N/A
5
3
0
0
1
2
37-67

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
STL NYM
STL NYM
Consensus
-126
+108
-137
+115
-130
+110
-135
+114
-126
+108
-136
+116
-130
+110
-134
+114
-130
+110
-140
+118
-125
+105
-145
+120
-135
+110
-135
+115
Open
Current
Book
STL NYM
STL NYM
Consensus
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-153)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+134)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-156)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-109)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-117)
7.5 (-104)
7.5 (-107)
7.5 (-113)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-125)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)