Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Josh Winckowski - Red Sox
• Run Line: Cubs -1.5 145, Red Sox 1.5 -165
• Money Line: Cubs -120, Red Sox 100
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 52%
• Boston Red Sox - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 47.16%
• Boston Red Sox - 52.84%

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

In an Interleague matchup scheduled for April 27, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will take on the Chicago Cubs at Fenway Park. The Red Sox, with a season record of 14-13, are having an above-average season, while the Cubs boast an impressive 17-9 record, indicating a great season so far.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Josh Winckowski, who ranks as the #93 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that Winckowski is an average pitcher among the approximately 350 pitchers evaluated. On the other hand, the Cubs are expected to start right-handed pitcher Ben Brown, who our Power Rankings consider to be a below-average pitcher.

Winckowski has started one game and made eight bullpen appearances this year, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.20, which is above average. However, his 3.65 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better in the future. In contrast, Brown has started three games with an ERA of 3.72, indicating a good performance on the mound. His 2.89 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

In terms of offense, the Red Sox rank as the 14th best team in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league, but are average in terms of home runs and stolen bases. The Cubs, on the other hand, boast the 7th best offense in MLB, with a strong team batting average and stolen base ranking.

Considering the projected starting pitchers, Winckowski's high-walk rate may give the patient Cubs offense, which ranks 3rd in walks, an advantage. However, the Red Sox have a solid bullpen ranking 16th in MLB, while the Cubs have a stronger bullpen, ranked 10th.

The current odds for the game indicate a close matchup, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. The Red Sox have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, as do the Cubs.

To summarize, the Red Sox and the Cubs are set to face off in an Interleague matchup at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have an above-average season record, while the Cubs have been performing exceptionally well. The starting pitchers, Winckowski and Brown, have shown mixed performances, with Winckowski being considered average and Brown below-average. The offenses of both teams have their strengths, with the Red Sox excelling in batting average and the Cubs ranking higher overall. The game is expected to be closely contested, with both teams having an equal implied win probability.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 14.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner as the 18th-best batter in MLB when it comes to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected lineup today (.310 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .321 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Enmanuel Valdez is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games at home (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)

Cubs vs Red Sox Prediction: Cubs 4.14 - Red Sox 4.15

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.