Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Rays
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 -135, White Sox 1.5 115
• Money Line: Rays -230, White Sox 200
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 68%
• Chicago White Sox - 32%

Projected Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 54.84%
• Chicago White Sox - 45.16%

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Game Preview & Prediction

In a matchup between the Chicago White Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays, the White Sox will be the home team at Guaranteed Rate Field. The game is set to be an American League showdown, with both teams looking to improve their records this season.

The White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jonathan Cannon, who has had a challenging season so far. With a 0-1 record and a high ERA of 7.27, his performance has been less than stellar. However, his peripheral indicator, the xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future games.

The Rays will counter with right-handed pitcher Aaron Civale. Civale, with a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.90, has been performing relatively well this season. His xFIP is lower than his ERA, indicating that he may have been unlucky in some of his outings.

Both teams have faced struggles offensively this season. The White Sox rank as the worst offense in MLB, while the Rays are not far behind, ranking 25th. These rankings are based on underlying talent and not year-to-date performance. The Rays, however, have performed better in team batting average, ranking 9th in the league.

Taking a look at the recent individual performances, the White Sox's best hitter over the past week has been Korey Lee, with a batting average of .357 and an OPS of 1.043. For the Rays, Isaac Paredes has been their standout hitter, with a batting average of .261 and an OPS of .798.

Based on the current odds, the Rays are heavily favored to win this game with an implied win probability of 68%. The White Sox, as underdogs, have a lower implied team total of 3.20 runs compared to the Rays' 4.80 runs.

With the Rays having an above-average pitcher in Civale and a more potent offense, the White Sox will face a tough challenge. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the White Sox will look to turn their season around with a strong performance at home.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Amed Rosario has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Austin Shenton, Ben Rortvedt).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jonathan Cannon is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #2 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games at home (+12.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 57 games (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 48% ROI)

Rays vs White Sox Prediction: Rays 4.75 - White Sox 4.06

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