Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
• Run Line: Twins 1.5 -185, Angels -1.5 160
• Money Line: Twins 110, Angels -130
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 46%
• Los Angeles Angels - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 41.71%
• Los Angeles Angels - 58.29%

Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League matchup, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Minnesota Twins on April 27, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels will be looking to turn their struggling season around, with a record of 10-15, while the Twins aim to improve their below-average season, with a record of 11-13.

On the mound, the Angels are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Soriano, who has a 0-3 record this year with an impressive 3.43 ERA. However, his expected ERA (xERA) and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) suggest that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward. Meanwhile, the Twins are expected to start right-hander Chris Paddack, who has a 1-1 record but has struggled with a 5.57 ERA this season. Paddack's Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) indicates he may have been unlucky and could improve in future performances.

Both teams have had their fair share of struggles this season, but the Angels offense has shown some promising signs. They rank 19th in MLB in overall offensive performance. Their team batting average is ranked 12th, indicating an average level of talent. However, they excel in the power department, ranking 3rd in home runs. On the other hand, their weakness lies in stolen bases, where they rank 27th.

The Twins offense, on the other hand, has struggled this season, ranking 24th overall. They are below average in team batting average, but they do show some power, ranking 7th in home runs. Similar to the Angels, their weakness is stolen bases, where they also rank 24th.

According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Jose Soriano is considered the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him above average. Chris Paddack, on the other hand, is seen as an average pitcher in these rankings.

Based on the current betting odds, the Angels are slight favorites with a moneyline set at -130, giving them an implied win probability of 54%. The Twins, with a moneyline set at +110, have an implied win probability of 46%.

With their home-field advantage, the Angels are looking to capitalize on their power hitting and the solid performance of Jose Soriano. However, the Twins will aim to exploit the Angels' weakness in stolen bases and take advantage of Chris Paddack's potential to perform better than his season statistics suggest.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged being matched up with 7 same-handed bats in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Bashing 4 home runs over the past 14 days, Edouard Julien has been on fire in recent games.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The Minnesota Twins have 5 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Taylor Ward's batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 77 games (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 82 games (+12.65 Units / 14% ROI)

Twins vs Angels Prediction: Twins 4.35 - Angels 4.9

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