When Caleb Williams took the field for the Chicago Bears’ first regular season game against the Tennessee Titans, the anticipation for the rookie’s debut game—possibly the most ever—was on full display. Despite a tough debut for the quarterback, the Bears secured a 24-17 win, a notable feat for the rookie. The victory made Williams the first #1 overall pick with a Week 1 win in over 20 years. Going forward this season, Williams is expected to eclipse C.J. Stroud’s record-breaking 2023 rookie campaign with the Houston Texans.
However, Stroud’s success is an anomaly. Drafting a successful quarterback, especially one who is effective right away, is difficult.
When teams have a high first-round draft pick, and they’re coming off an unsuccessful few seasons, it’s assumed that they will use their first pick on a quarterback. That player will assume the title of “the face of the franchise” and will get the central attention, win or lose.
To see which quarterbacks have faced that challenge and triumphed, ATS.io compiled a ranking of the 10 best rookie quarterbacks since 1960 using data from StatHead. Rookies were defined as players who are in their first season of professional football and have not been on the roster of another professional team. Quarterbacks were ranked according to adjusted net yards per pass attempt, which quantifies efficient passing skill. Ties were broken using passer rating. Only rookie quarterbacks with at least 10 games played and 200 total passing attempts were considered.
Since 1967, 130 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. Of those drafted, only 61 have won a playoff game as a starter, according to The Athletic, which used data from NFL Research.
The biggest reason this success rate is not guaranteed is because there are differences between college and pro offensive systems. In the collegiate game, the ball is snapped at different points on the field, passing windows are wider, and defenders and linemen are not as quick, making the adjustment to the pro level more difficult. NFL scouts and general managers are gambling on what skills can be transferable and how long those adjustments might take, which is why some teams prefer redshirt quarterbacks to ease the transition.
However, just because a team may not want to use their first-round pick on a quarterback, doesn’t mean they can’t find a diamond in the rough later in the draft. Think about Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott, all of which were not first-round picks, but have gone on to make a name for themselves in the NFL.
#10. Gardner Minshew (2019)
– Adjusted net yards per pass attempt: 6.44
– Passer rating: 91.2
– Season stats: 3,271 yards, 21 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
Coming out of college, Gardner Minshew was not a highly sought-after quarterback for NFL teams. He was drafted in the sixth round of the 2019 draft—a draft that was headlined by Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, and Daniel Jones.
Nonetheless, Minshew’s rookie season with the Jacksonville Jaguars was filled with many accomplishments. He won Rookie of the Week seven times despite not winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Minshew also had the highest passer rating of any rookie quarterback that started in 2019.
#9. Baker Mayfield (2018)
– Adjusted net yards per pass attempt: 6.77
– Passer rating: 93.7
– Season stats: 3,725 yards, 27 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
Pressure was high for Baker Mayfield as the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. When he joined the Cleveland Browns, there was an expectation that once the team figured out the quarterback position, it could be playoff-ready.
After trading for Jarvis Landry, a young wide receiver from the Miami Dolphins, in the offseason, the Browns were on their way.
Mayfield’s rookie season was filled with many firsts, and the Landry-Mayfield connection filled the stat sheet. Mayfield set the record for most passing touchdowns by a rookie quarterback in 2019 with 27 surpassing prior marks from Payton Manning and Russell Wilson.
#8. Justin Herbert (2020)
– Adjusted net yards per pass attempt: 6.84
– Passer rating: 98.3
– Season stats: 4,336 yards, 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Justin Herbert was the third quarterback selected in the 2020 NFL draft behind Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. As the No. 6 overall pick, expectations were high, but there was also an assumption that it would be a few years before Herbert’s development would take shape.
Then, Chargers starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor was accidentally punctured in the lung by a team doctor administering a painkiller before the second game of the season, and it wasn’t clear what Taylor’s status would be moving forward. When Herbert was given the nod to start minutes before the game, fans didn’t know what to expect.
Herbert shocked viewers when he threw for over 300 yards and only one interception in that game. He continued his strong rookie showing throughout the season and went on to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
#7. Ben Roethlisberger (2004)
– Adjusted net yards per pass attempt: 6.93
– Passer rating: 98.1
– Season stats: 2,621 yards, 17 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
Ben Roethlisberger was the third quarterback selected in his draft class behind the likes of Eli Manning and Philip Rivers—though fans wouldn’t have been able to tell.
From the moment Roethlisberger was called up by the Pittsburgh Steelers to play in his first game—Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens—it was clear he had a special arm, gaining the nickname “Golden Arm.”
While the next several games were bumpy for Steelers fans, it was clear that Roethlisberger was the future of the franchise. The Steelers had a solid running game and its receiving core, led by Hines Ward, was one of the best in the league.
Once Roethlisberger gained his footing a few games in, he was unstoppable. He led Pittsburgh to its best record ever: 15-1. He also started the season on an eight-game winning streak, becoming the first rookie to do so.
Additionally, Roethlisberger became the first quarterback to win AP Offensive Rookie of the Year.
#6. Matt Ryan (2008)
– Adjusted net yards per pass attempt: 7.01
– Passer rating: 87.7
– Season stats: 3,440 yards, 16 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
As the No. 3 overall pick in the 2008 NFL draft, there were high expectations on Matt Ryan’s shoulders heading to the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons were coming off back-to-back losing seasons and off-the-field legal troubles with its starting quarterback Michael Vick overshadowing the team’s play.
Ryan was expected to pick up the pieces. He did that immediately, leading the Falcons to an 11-5 record in his rookie season and becoming the clear favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year halfway through the season, which he went on to win. The tag team of Ryan and running back Michael Turner was one of the best offensive forces in the sport that season.
#5. Russell Wilson (2012)
– Adjusted net yards per pass attempt: 7.01
– Passer rating: 100
– Season stats: 3,118 yards, 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Russell Wilson was drafted in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft by the Seattle Seahawks.
Considering Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck headlined the NFL Draft that year, it was not believed that Wilson would be a starter come Week 1, but that quickly changed.
Going into the 2012 NFL Draft, Tarvaris Jackson was the Seattle Seahawks’ starting quarterback, and the team signed NFL veteran quarterback Matt Flynn as an insurance policy on the injury-prone Jackson. It was assumed in the short term that either Jackson or Flynn would lead the franchise.
Once training camp arrived, however, the Seahawks’ quarterback position was uncertain. Jackson was traded to the Buffalo Bills, and Flynn was underwhelming at camp, forcing Head Coach Pete Carroll to take a gamble on his rookie quarterback, Wilson, in Week 1.
Carroll, nor Wilson, ever looked back.
Wilson was one of the best passing quarterbacks that season. He led the Seahawks to an 11-5 record and went on to win NFL Rookie of the Year.
#4. Dan Marino (1983)
– Adjusted net yards per pass attempt: 7.39
– Passer rating: 96
– Season stats: 2,210 yards, 20 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
When Dan Marino was drafted by the Miami Dolphins in 1983, the NFL looked very different. Running the ball was the name of the game. The quarterback would either run the football himself at the line of scrimmage or hand it off to the running back, and the offensive linemen would claw and push the pile forward as the runner powered his legs.
It was not a pretty sight.
However, Marino took a different approach, throwing the ball with a unique quick release for that era. He led the Dolphins to a 9-1 record after replacing David Woodley midway through his rookie season, ending with a 12-4 record. He went on to win Rookie of the Year and was the first rookie to start a Pro Bowl.
#3. C.J. Stroud (2023)
– Adjusted net yards per pass attempt: 7.47
– Passer rating: 100.8
– Season stats: 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
When C.J. Stroud was drafted No. 2 by the Houston Texans last year, there were a lot of questions, not about his ability, but about the organization that he would be playing for. The Texans were coming off of a 3-13-1 season in 2022, finishing with the worst record in the league, and a lot of volatility in its front office. The team fired its head coach and a top executive before the draft.
Weeks later, the team hired former Texans linebacker DeMeco Ryans as its next head coach. While Ryans is a defensive-minded coach, Stroud was seen as a key ingredient to the team’s success since Ryans hired his coaching staff around the quarterback.
Stroud led the NFL in yards and TD-to-interception ratio during his rookie season, which is an efficiency statistic considering he didn’t get his first interception until his sixth regular-season game against the New Orleans Saints.
While Stroud was a part of the league MVP conversation for most of the season, he didn’t ultimately win the title. However, he was named 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and his rookie season is seen as one of the best in NFL history.
#2. Robert Griffin III (2012)
– Adjusted net yards per pass attempt: 7.47
– Passer rating: 102.4
– Season stats: 3,200 yards, 20 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
Leading into the 2012 draft, it wasn’t a matter of whether Washington would pick a quarterback, it was a matter of who. After several seasons of mediocre quarterback play and losing seasons from the likes of Jason Campbell, Donovan McNabb, and Rex Grossman, it was time for a new face to lead the offense.
At No. 2, Washington selected Robert Griffin III making him the second quarterback selected in the 2012 NFL draft behind Andrew Luck.
Griffin started his rookie year campaign with one of the best performances football fans have ever seen. He completed 19 of his 26 pass attempts for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns, beating the New Orleans Saints. That game earned him the highest passer rating by a rookie ever, 158.3. He now shares that record with Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota.
Griffin III went on to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012.
#1. Dak Prescott (2016)
– Adjusted net yards per pass attempt: 7.86
– Passer rating: 104.9
– Season stats: 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
Dak Prescott is statistically the best rookie quarterback ever, racking up the best passer rating as a rookie. After losing his first game, he led the Cowboys on an 11-game winning streak. That season, he led the team to its fourth-best season ever with a 13-3 record.
Prescott was the 2016 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and became the first NFL quarterback to be drafted in the fourth round or later to start all 16 regular season games.
Data reporting by Karim Noorani. Story editing by Shanna Kelly. Additional editing by Kelly Glass. Copy editing by Robert Wickwire. Photo selection by Clarese Moller.
