Updated October 2, 2026
As a leading expert in NFL betting and fantasy football, our team at ATS delivers in-depth, weekly Underdog Fantasy NFL picks with unmatched insight and accuracy. With years of experience analyzing player stats, trends, and matchup dynamics, we ensure that our recommendations are backed by data-driven research and expert analysis.
Player | Underdog line | Pick | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Mahomes | 236.5 passing yards | Higher | Chiefs at Raiders |
Parker Washington | 4.5 receptions | Higher | Jaguars at Bengals |
Mahomes has averaged 270.7 passing yards through three games, going for 184 against Denver, 382 against Indianapolis and 246 against Miami. That means he has cleared 236.5 in each of his last two games, including last week’s 246-yard performance on only 24 attempts.
The matchup also has the type of game environment I want for a passing-yard Higher: Kansas City and Las Vegas are both 3-0, the Raiders’ offense has shown it can keep games competitive, and the current game total is 47.5. He should put the ball in the air often, helping him reach this over.
Washington has developed into Jacksonville’s top receiving option, entering Week 4 with 15 catches for 221 yards and two touchdowns through three games. His weekly reception totals are 5, 7, and 3 on 6, 12, and 5 targets, respectively, giving him 7.7 targets per game and a 5.0-catch average. Five catches is a relatively modest requirement for a receiver currently leading Jacksonville in targets, receptions, and receiving yards and he should hit the over here.
Every week throughout the NFL season, our NFL betting experts will go through the board of pick ‘em options at DFS sites like Underdog Fantasy. We will then assemble our Underdog Fantasy tickets using those picks, which you can use to build your own tickets and hopefully win along with us. Be sure to bookmark this page, as it will be updated weekly with our picks, featuring props from some of the biggest names in the NFL.
Underdog Fantasy pick ‘em allows players to select from a huge menu of over/unders pertaining to individual player performances in each game on the NFL schedule. Players must select at least two over/unders (referred to on the site as higher/lowers for legal reasons) in order to enter a pick ‘em. This is essentially just parlaying two or more player props, but it falls into the “game of skill” designation that DFS operators fall into, keeping its legal status.
Once a player has entered their pick ‘em selections, they need all of those picks to win in order for their entry to be graded a winner. If even one selection fails to hit, the entire pick ‘em entry is graded a loser, just like a parlay wager.
To answer whether Underdog Fantasy NFL pick ‘em is a good value, there is some basic math involved. Answering this question means comparing the prospective payouts for each level of Underdog Fantasy pick ‘em to the potential payouts for parlays at a sportsbook, along with the true odds of the outcomes for each. For the purposes of this exercise, we will assume that the higher/lower options at Underdog Fantasy are set at the same -110 odds as our parlay at a traditional sportsbook.
# of Parlay Legs at -110 | Underdog Fantasy Payout | DraftKings Sportsbook Payout | True Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | +200 | +264 | +300 |
3 | +500 | +595 | +700 |
4 | +900 | +1228 | +1500 |
5 | +1900 | +2435 | +3100 |
As you can see, you are not getting closer to true odds on pick ‘em selections at Underdog Fantasy. You are getting subpar value relative to the true odds that get progressively worse as you add more legs. But if you stick with two-leg pick ‘em entries, you are in better shape.
It is also worth considering that some of the options at Underdog Fantasy would come in at shorter odds than the -110 that we reference above. For example, betting on specific NFL players to score a touchdown in a game would be at much shorter odds at a traditional sportsbook, which could deliver better value in pick ‘ems at Underdog.
Just like with NFL parlays, there are ways to get a leg up on the house when making Underdog Fantasy NFL pick ‘em entries. Below are some of the strategies that our NFL handicapping experts use when they create their entries at Underdog and other DFS sites.
First, it is very important to stick to two-leg pick ‘em entries when playing at Underdog Fantasy. As we outlined above, it is way more likely that you are getting value (or at least near the true odds) on the entries you are creating when you limit them to two legs. Anything more than that, and the math gets way more difficult for you to win over the long run on this site and the others like it.
After you make sure that you are staying with two-leg pick ‘em entries at Underdog Fantasy, the next thing you should do is dig into all of the options available to find the best ones from a value perspective. There are several ways to do this, and several angles that players can take to derive value from the higher/lower options on the board. No matter which way you do this, it starts with doing the research to find options that have the best chance to win.
As is the case with over/under betting at traditional sportsbooks, choosing the higher option on Underdog Fantasy props is incredibly popular. There are plenty of times that the higher option is warranted, and we will utilize them often when making our Underdog Fantasy NFL picks. But players should be willing to choose unders at times as well, as not every prop is going to go over in every game.
Along with our Underdog Fantasy NFL picks, we offer many other forms of NFL predictions here at ATS. Click on the links below to get our latest and greatest NFL selections, from traditional betting markets, to props and parlays throughout each week of the season.
