The NFL has a long and decorated history built on the foundation of the league’s parity. The competitive framework of America’s most popular professional sports league showcases a team’s ability to adapt, overcome, and exceed expectations – evident through strong results “against the spread.”
The sports betting term, the set number of points that a team is expected to win or lose by, can be used to determine a team’s ability to compete on a given week and the franchise’s capacity to maintain success.
ATS.io compiled a ranking of the 10 best NFL teams against the spread in the past decade using data from Pro-Football-Reference.com and Statmuse.com. Rankings were determined using against-the-spread win percentage. The fewest losses against the spread were used as the first tiebreaker between teams, and average margin against the spread was used for the second tiebreaker (when necessary).
The 10 best NFL teams against the spread are some of the most successful entities in sports, while others are still yearning for validation. Three of the 12 NFL teams that have yet to win a Super Bowl have produced appreciable results against the spread. Others in the top 10 have legacies that will stand the test of time because of Super Bowl appearances and wins.
#10. Green Bay Packers
- Against the spread (ATS) record since 2016: 90-84-3 (50.8%)
- Average ATS margin: +0.2
- Overall record since 2016: 104-71-2
Although it’s been more than a decade since the Packers last won a Super Bowl, Green Bay has still managed to cover the spread in nearly 51% of its games since 2016. That’s especially impressive considering the franchise is almost always dealing with high expectations from both oddsmakers and bettors.
Aaron Rodgers helped keep the Packers among the NFC’s top teams for years before the franchise transitioned to Jordan Love after the 2022 season. Many expected Green Bay to take a step back, but Love quickly proved otherwise, throwing for more than 4,100 yards and 32 touchdowns during his first full season as the starter while leading the Packers to the playoffs.
The Packers have also benefited from long-term stability with coaches Mike McCarthy and Matt LaFleur, along with the late-season edge that comes with playing at Lambeau Field in freezing conditions.
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#9. Kansas City Chiefs
- Against the spread (ATS) record since 2016: 96-89-3 (51.1%)
- Average ATS margin: +1.0
- Overall record since 2016: 135-53-0
Kansas City has been one of the NFL’s most successful teams of the past decade, winning three Super Bowls since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018. Alongside head coach Andy Reid, Mahomes helped turn the Chiefs into one of the league’s highest-scoring teams year after year.
With stars like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill on the offense, the Chiefs led the NFL in scoring in 2018 with 565 total points and stayed among the league’s top offenses for most of this stretch. Even while entering games as heavy favorites on a regular basis, Kansas City still found ways to cover the spread more often than not.
The Chiefs finally came back down to earth a bit in 2025. They went 6-10-1 against the spread and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014, showing how hard it is to keep outperforming expectations for that long in the NFL.
#8. Minnesota Vikings
- Against the spread (ATS) record since 2016: 88-77-6 (51.5%)
- Average ATS margin: +0.2
- Overall record since 2016: 99-71-1
Despite still searching for the franchise’s first Super Bowl title, the Vikings have been one of the NFL’s top teams against the spread over the past decade. After finishing 8-8 in 2016, Minnesota bounced back the following season with a 13-3 record and the best defense in the NFL, allowing just 252 total points all year.
That 2017 team came within one game of reaching the Super Bowl before losing to the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. Since then, the Vikings have continued putting together competitive teams behind star players like Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson.
Minnesota also exceeded expectations quite a bit in 2024 under quarterback Sam Darnold. They won 14 games in the regular season after entering the season with one of the lowest projected win totals among NFC teams.
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#7. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Against the spread (ATS) record since 2016: 91-79-4 (52.3%)
- Average ATS margin: -0.1
- Overall record since 2016: 103-69-2
The Steelers have quietly been one of the NFL’s most dependable teams against the spread for years now. A big reason for that was former head coach Mike Tomlin, who never finished with a losing season during his long run in Pittsburgh from 2007 through 2025.
For most of this stretch, the Steelers were led by Ben Roethlisberger before he retired after the 2021 season. Since then, Pittsburgh has gone through several quarterbacks, including Kenny Pickett, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Mason Rudolph, but the team still managed to stay competitive in a loaded AFC.
That continued in 2025 when the Steelers brought in veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers and ended up winning the AFC North. Pittsburgh once again leaned heavily on its defense, with stars like T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward helping the team grind out wins throughout the season.
#6. Baltimore Ravens
- Against the spread (ATS) record since 2016: 91-79-4 (52.3%)
- Average ATS margin: +2.5
- Overall record since 2016: 106-68-0
The Ravens have been one of the NFL’s better teams against the spread for most of the past decade, first with Joe Flacco and later with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Baltimore stayed competitive during the final years of the Flacco era, but things really changed once Jackson became the full-time starter in 2018.
In 2019, Jackson put together one of the best seasons by a quarterback in recent memory. The Ravens finished 14-2, Jackson threw 36 touchdown passes, rushed for another 1,206 yards, and won NFL MVP at just 23 years old.
Baltimore stayed near the top of the AFC for several years after that and went a combined 23-14-1 against the spread during the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Even after missing the playoffs in 2025, the Ravens still enter the 2026 season as co-favorites alongside the Bills to win the AFC, showing how much confidence oddsmakers still have in Jackson and Baltimore’s roster.
#5. New Orleans Saints
- Against the spread (ATS) record since 2016: 90-81-1 (52.3%)
- Average ATS margin: +1.7
- Overall record since 2016: 95-77-0
You might be surprised to see the Saints this high on the list considering they haven’t made the playoffs since Drew Brees retired after the 2020 season. Brees helped lead several high-powered offenses in New Orleans and played a big role in the Saints becoming one of the NFL’s top teams against the spread during the late 2010s.
Even after his retirement, though, the Saints have still been fairly competitive against the number. New Orleans finished 9-8 ATS in 2025 despite another non-playoff season, with veterans like Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan helping keep games close defensively.
The Saints are also hoping they may have found something in young quarterback Tyler Shough after he showed flashes during the 2025 season. If that happens, New Orleans could end up outperforming expectations against the spread once again in 2026.
#4. Dallas Cowboys
- Against the spread (ATS) record since 2016: 90-80-2 (52.3%)
- Average ATS margin: +1.1
- Overall record since 2016: 98-73-1
The Cowboys, commonly known as “America’s Team,” are usually one of the most heavily bet teams in the NFL. Because of that, Dallas is often viewed as overvalued against the spread, but the franchise has still managed to put together strong ATS results over the past decade.
A big part of that started in 2016 when rookie quarterback Dak Prescott helped lead the Cowboys to a 13-3 overall record (10-6-1 ATS) alongside running back Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott has remained one of the main reasons Dallas stays competitive year after year, helping the team win 12 games in three straight seasons from 2021 through 2023.
The Cowboys haven’t reached an NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season, but they’ve still done a solid job covering spreads despite carrying some of the highest expectations in football almost every season.
#3. Cincinnati Bengals
- Against the spread (ATS) record since 2016: 91-77-3 (53.2%)
- Average ATS margin: -0.5
- Overall record since 2016: 76-93-2
The Bengals have been knocking on the door of a Super Bowl title for years but still haven’t been able to get over the hump. Even so, Cincinnati has quietly been one of the NFL’s best teams against the spread over the past decade, covering at better than a 53% clip during that stretch.
Things changed quickly for the franchise once Joe Burrow was drafted first overall in 2020. After back-to-back losing seasons, Burrow helped lead the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance in 2021 and another deep playoff run the following year alongside star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
Cincinnati has missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, but the Bengals have still gone 26-25 against the spread during that span despite dealing with high expectations and being in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions.
#2. New England Patriots
- Against the spread (ATS) record since 2016: 98-78-4 (54.4%)
- Average ATS margin: +1.4
- Overall record since 2016: 108-72-0
The Patriots have been one of the NFL’s best teams against the spread over the past decade, covering at a 54.4% rate since 2016. Much of that came during the later years of the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era, when New England kept winning games despite carrying huge expectations almost every week.
Brady helped lead the Patriots to multiple Super Bowl appearances during this stretch and was still putting up elite numbers late into his career. In 2017, he threw for 4,577 yards at 40 years old while helping New England reach yet another Super Bowl.
A lot of people expected the Patriots to fall off once Brady and Belichick were gone, but New England got back into contention quicker than expected behind quarterback Drake Maye. The Patriots entered the 2025 season with +8000 odds to win the Super Bowl before eventually making a surprising run all the way there.
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#1. Detroit Lions
- Against the spread (ATS) record since 2016: 94-74-2 (55.3%)
- Average ATS margin: +0.6 points
- Overall record since 2016: 82-86-2
The Lions have been the NFL’s best team against the spread since 2016, covering in more than 55% of their games during that stretch. A lot of that came after Dan Campbell was named head coach in 2021 and completely changed the feeling around the franchise.
Since Campbell took over, Detroit has gone an NFL-best 57-32 ATS, good for a 64% cover rate. For a few years, the Lions felt like one of those teams the betting market just couldn’t fully catch up to as Detroit kept outperforming expectations week after week.
That slowed down a bit in 2025 when the Lions finished just 8-9 against the spread, which may have been a sign that oddsmakers finally adjusted to Detroit’s success. Even so, the Lions still enter 2026 with high hopes behind stars like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Aidan Hutchinson.
Story editing by Jeff Smith. Copy editing by Robert Wickwire. Photo selection by Clarese Moller. Data Work By Karim Noorani.
