The New York Giants (2‑10) head into Monday night’s game against the New England Patriots (10‑2) hoping to salvage some pride late in the regular season. The Patriots are favored by a touchdown entering this matchup at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough as they try to move a step closer to claiming the AFC East title. Can New England hold serve on their home turf? I’ll try to answer that question with my Giants vs Patriots prediction.
Our Giants vs Patriots Pick
- Pick: Patriots -7
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Giants at New England Patriots
- Date & Time: Monday, December 1, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- Broadcast: ESPN / ESPN2 / ESPN Deportes
Giants vs Patriots Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total (O/U) |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots –7 | Patriots –360 | Giants +280 | 46.5 points |
Key Storylines
- Patriots playoff push — The Patriots are 10‑2 and firmly in control of the AFC East race. New England is also in contention to win the top seed in the AFC for the playoffs. The Giants are 2‑10, already watched their coach get fired, and are now trying to finish strong under interim head coach Mike Kafka.
- Quarterback spotlight returns — The Giants are reinstating rookie Jaxson Dart as the starter after a two‑game absence due to a concussion. His mobility ability to improvise make him fun to watch, but he could struggle against a highly disciplined New England defense.
- Injuries and depth for the Giants — On defense, notable absences and question marks remain for the Giants. Key contributors like Dexter Lawrence (elbow), Kayvon Thibodeaux (shoulder), and other defensive starters may be limited or out. That could further the gap in quality between these teams.
Quarterback Play
Jaxson Dart returns to the lineup for the Giants after clearing concussion protocol. Over nine starts this season, he has thrown for 1,417 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. On the ground, he has added 317 yards and a team‑high 7 rushing touchdowns.
Drake Maye is a bona fide MVP candidate for the Patriots at quarterback this season. Maye has 3,130 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. His numbers aren’t as impressive as those of Rams quarterback Matt Stafford, but the Patriots are winning and Maye is a big reason for that.
Betting Trends
- New England is 5‑0 straight up in their last five games. New York has dropped six straight.
- The Giants are 0‑10 straight up in their last ten road games.
- The Patriots are 7-4-1 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 7-5 against the spread going into Week 13.
- New England is 6-6 in the over/under market.
- The Giants have gone over the total 7 times in 12 games.
Giants vs Patriots Model Projection
Score Projection: Patriots 27 – Giants 14
Win Probability: Patriots 82%, Giants 18%
Final Thoughts
The return of Jaxson Dart will make the Giants a much more interesting football team to watch. But I don’t think Dart’s return will make the Giants meaningfully better, especially against a team as good as the Patriots. I recommend laying the points with the Patriots here, as they should flex their defensive muscle en route to a convincing victory at Foxborough.
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