Midseason Update Through Eight Weeks
The AFC West is playing out essentially as expected. The Chiefs are in the drivers seat. Each team is one game behind the next, ordered as the Chargers, Broncos and then the Raiders. The 2-5 Raiders wins over of 8.5 was our original focus in this division, but they have not done well to win games that are there for the taking. The 0-3 start saw three losses by just a single score and a combined 13 point differential over the three games. They then lost a heart breaker in Arrowhead by just a single point on an iffy two point conversion attempt. This wager is not dead in the water, but things will have to bounce the other way to cash the ticket at season’s end.
At this point, the Chiefs are the only reasonable bet to win the division. Unfortunately that wager costs -650, meaning we will completely sit out of that one at this time. We do however have an opportunity to get our original wager back on the Raiders. Their current win total sits at just 6.5, and this is a team that has played far better than their 2-5 record. They will find ways to properly utilize Davante Adams, and are very close to having Darren Waller back in the lineup. In the interim they have ridden Josh Jacobs in volume, and he has fully delivered. This is a formidable offense that will improve over their first half of the season down the stretch. Just a .500 record down the stretch will cash this new over bet. Additionally, six of those ten games will come against teams .500 or worse at the moment.
2022 AFC West Futures & Betting Odds
Full Season AFC West Preview
The AFC West is next up for our divisional previews of the 2022 NFL Season. The AFC West has four teams that could easily be playoff teams this season, and will be among the most competitive in the league. The Chiefs have been the big brother of the division, winning six straight division titles. They will be in for their most fierce competition in years, as each team is set up for win now success.
AFC West Odds Betting Preview
A look at the current odds at time of writing to win the AFC east division and regular season win totals:
- Kansas City Chiefs +175 To Win AFC West, 10.5 Over/Under Win Total
- Los Angeles Chargers +220 To Win AFC West, 10 Over/Under Win Total
- Denver Broncos +260 To Win AFC West, 10 Over/Under Win Total
- Las Vegas Raiders +650 To Win AFC West, 8.5 Over/Under Win Total
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs will always be set up to be Super Bowl contenders as long as Patrick Mahomes remains their signal caller. Mahomes has essentially played quarterback at a higher level than anyone has since taking over as starter. The Chiefs have two Super Bowl appearances and a win under Mahomes leadership. This season will test just how elite Mahomes is, as the skill position grouping is a full list of question marks after Travis Kelce. Top wide receiver Tyreek Hill departed for Miami this offseason. There are essentially no players in the league that bring the speed and dynamism Hill does. No matter how perfect Mahomes is, Hill will be missed.
The Chiefs have essentially given themselves four options at wide receiver to attempt to replace the production of Hill. They brought in Juju Smith-Schuster from Pittsburgh and Marquez Valdes-Scantiling from Green Bay. These players should be thought of as serviceable free agent adds instead of game changers. Mecole Hardman will have a chance to advance in his production. Lastly and likely most importantly, second round draft pick Skyy Moore will get an opportunity to be the alpha receiver. The sky is the limit for Skyy, but it is unknown if he is ready for it in year one.
Running back also remains a large question mark on offense. The Chiefs essentially must turn back to highly drafted but mostly under-productive Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He will be backed up by rookie Isaih Pacheco. Production from the backfield will likely be middle of the road. The same will hold true for the defense as a whole. The Chiefs probably remain the most likely to win the division. However, being favored to do so and having question marks means we will refrain from a betting play on them.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers will look to build on the offensive lightning they found they have last year. Justin Herbert has quickly become one of the league’s best quarterbacks, and he has quite a solid stable of weapons. Austin Ekeler will once again lead the backfield and he is a high end pass catcher. The wide receiving trio of Mike Wiliams, Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer is a formidable one.
The issue of sorts for the Chargers is they had all of these pieces in place last season, but they finished just third in the division at 9-8. Their scoring was high end but their defense was the worst in the division, and it showed up in the wins and losses. This is a team that will only go as far as the defense allows them to. Without much significant player change over and keeping the same players in house, I cannot justify playing an over or a divisional win prop on the Chargers.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are a team that have shoved their chips in the middle for a winning run in the short term. The team dealt an absolute haul of players and draft picks to Seattle to acquire Russell Wilson. They have also recently signed Wilson to a huge contract extension. Wilson will try to get the most out of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler at the wide receiver position. The running game should complement the passing game well as high end Javonte Williams will take a step forward in opportunity received. This offense has a chance to be very good and completely well balanced. The actual level reached may well come down to the play of the wide receiving group, as none of the players are proven.
The defense has an extremely wide range of outcomes, mostly hinging on the pass rush. A group headlined by Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory will need to be difference makers for the defense. We simply do not know whether this group will perform nearer their floor or their ceiling. With a win total matching that of the other two top teams in the division and the divisional price not being a huge value, we will not have a wager on the Broncos.
Las Vegas Raiders
In the view of the oddsmakers, the Raiders are the team trailing the pack in the division. That feels like a silly stance to take, as the Raiders have done nothing but improve. That improvement likely comes on their second place division finish at 10-7 last season. That was good enough to earn them a Wild Card spot in the playoffs last season. That was also sporting on the league’s worst wide receiving corps. That has all changed this season as the team brought in Davante Adams, one of the best receivers in the league. Many believe him to be the absolute best. He will make Derek Carr’s life so much easier in combination with Darren Waller.
The Raiders also get a boost to the coaching staff. Josh McDaniels takes over a team that battled through coaching turmoil last season, only to find success. I believe McDaniels will set the team up to run the ball well and make life quite easy for the passing game in return. He will improve the defense and give the team a chance to grow on the 10-7 record from last season. With the high end teams littering the division, any wager to win the division on any team seems like a thin call. That said, if there were a bullet to fire, the Raiders at +650 would be it. The best betting pick however, is the win total of the Raiders. It is rare we see a team improve in all facets yet have their win total set a game and a half lower than the previous season’s result. Take the Raiders on the over 8.5 wins.
