2022-2023 NFC Conference Futures
2022-2023 AFC Conference Futures
ATS NFL Odds Explanation: Understanding Odds to Win the Conference
Betting on the NFL Conference winner means betting on the team that will win either the AFC Championship Game or the NFC Championship Game, depending which conference the team plays in.
Everybody makes Super Bowl picks. When they do, they often mention which team they think will win and which team they think they will become the champ in the big game. Assuming your favored teams are from opposing conferences, those two teams would be your NFL conference winner selections.
How The Playoff Format Works
Beginning in 2020, the NFL has a new playoff format. Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs and only the #1 seed in each conference gets a bye in the first round. This is a big change from the previous long running format that saw two teams from each conference get a first round bye, with only six total teams from each conference making the playoffs. The six non-bye teams play on Wild Card Weekend, or what the the league is looking to rebrand as Super Wild Card Weekend. The winners advance to play in the Divisional Round and the team that had a bye will be in action for the first time. The winners in that round advance to the Conference Championship Round.
Those Conference Championship Games are where these specific wagers will be decided. It is important to note that conference winner odds are posted long before the playoff teams are known. As a general rule, the teams that appeared in the playoffs the previous year are usually among the favorites to win the conference.
Understanding Conference Championship Odds
Here at ATS, we make it very easy for you to see which teams have the best theoretical chance of winning their conference. We list the odds from shortest to longest price, and have tabs for each conference. We also give you the opportunity to compare odds at different US sportsbooks across the industry to see which ones have the best odds. The higher the price, the higher your potential winnings are going to be, so you always want to select the sportsbook that has the biggest plus figure offered and bet with them.
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If a team has odds of +450 or lower to win the conference, they will generally be the favorites. Betting on a line of +450 means that your winnings will be 4.5 times your bet amount, so you would win $450 on a bet of $100. You are not going to find minus prices to win the conference until later in the season after some games have been played and the standings are starting to shake out.
In Season Odds Movement
Once we reach the point in the season where minus figures start to appear, you can divide the odds from your bet amount to calculate your potential winnings. If a team is -150 and you bet $200, you can convert the odds to a decimal and do 200 / 1.5 to get your potential payout of $133.33. Always remember the plus and minus figures on odds based wagers are based on a $100 wager. Perhaps an easier way to convert is simply to change the minus figure to a fraction. In this case, -150 translates to 3/2. Assuming the wager would be to win $100, the 3/2 fraction dictates the risk would be $150.
All 16 teams from the AFC and the NFC are going to be listed under Odds to Win the Conference until they are mathematically eliminated from doing so, no matter how ludicrous it seems that they can win.
The conference champion odds are always changing based on offseason transactions, betting action, or wins and losses in the regular season, so keep it tuned right here at ATS to see the latest odds updates.