One of the more anticipated matchups of the season will take place this Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys visit the New England Patriots. The Cowboys enter the game 6-4, and with a one-game lead on the Eagles, thanks to the win the Patriots win over Philadelphia last weekend. As for the Patriots—they are dominating the AFC East with a 9-1 record.
The Patriots are favored to win by a touchdown and are expected by many to win. But the final outcome is not the only thing of interest. Fans—and gamblers—are eager to see who throws for more yards in their respective passing game.
Will it be Tom Brady or Dak Prescott? Those that are confident they know the answer may want to put some money down at Bovada.lv:
- Who Will Have More Passing Yards In Week 12
- Dak Prescott -130
- Tom Brady -110
Based just on stats alone, the obvious answer is Prescott. After his third 400+ yard game of the season last week, he leads the NFL with 322.1 yards per game this season. Brady comes in at ninth on the list at 275.2 yards/game.
This season has seen Brady surpass 300+yards four times with a high of 348 yards against a terrible Redskins defense. He hasn’t thrown for 400+ since Week Two of the 2017 season. Prescott, on the other hand, has three such games this season and was three yards away from another against the Vikings.
Brady has Julian Edleman, Mohamed Sanu, James White, Sony Michel, and Ben Watson. Prescott has Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Randall Cobb, and Jason Witten. Some may disagree, but advantage—Prescott.
So, on the one hand, we have Prescott throwing for close to 50 yards more a game with a much better overall group of receivers and running backs. Brady’s are good, but overall, Prescott has a personnel advantage.
Does this mean you should go with Prescott? Not necessarily.
The New England defense is on a historic pace allowing just 249.9 total yards a game this season and only 152.6 in the passing game. But they really haven’t faced a good passing team yet this season. The New York Giants are the highest-ranked passing game the Patriots defense has faced, and they only average 228 yards game.
With that in mind, it is not hard to imagine Prescott having a day against the Patriots. But at the same time, Brady may be able to throw well against the Cowboys defense. Statistically speaking, they are seventh in yards allowed at 216.9 yards/game and have given up 300+ just twice this season (Sam Darnold and Eli Manning).
So—how should you bet?
Conventional wisdom says to go with the Patriots and their powerful defense. Brady does not have the weapons Prescott has, but he’s a legend for a reason. But a closer examination of the stats shows the reputation of the Patriots defense is built on beating up weak teams. Prescott has torched some bad ones this season but has also done well against good defenses.
However, it is hard to shake the feeling that Bill Belichick will find some way to confound and confuse Kellen Moore (Cowboys OC).
The analysis says take Prescott, but the gut says take Brady.