Next to picking a winner for the big game, one of the more common bets for the Super Bowl is probably the winner of the MVP. The safest bets, of course, are the two quarterbacks since they in it more than anyone. But they don’t always win it.
Players at other positions are as essential if not more so to the overall success of the 49ers and Chiefs. So, there is a chance a quarterback does not win it this year. Who is going to win it is something fans can bet on this year.
But some sportsbooks will let fans do more than just bet on who is going to win MVP this year. For example, DraftKings has a few interesting prop bets they are taking wagers on:
- MVP Awarded To Player From Losing Team
- Yes +4000
It is a good wager for sportsbooks to offer, but they should have made the odds a lot higher. There has only been one game in the history of the Super Bowl, where the MVP came from the losing team. No matter how the game plays out, it would be shocking to see someone on the losing team win MVP.
Now, whether the MVP will be someone other than a quarterback is a better question.
- MVP Award Winner To Be A QB
- Yes -230
- No +167
Those odds translate out to the quarterback having a 69.7 percent chance of winning and for another position to win it a 37.45 percent chance.
Historically speaking, it probably will be the quarterback. A QB has won MVP honors in 29 of 53 games (55 percent). Seven of the last ten have been quarterbacks (70 percent), and 12 of the last 20 (60 percent).
If the Chiefs win, it will be because Patrick Mahomes had an MVP worthy game. But should the 49ers win, it will likely not be because of Jimmy Garoppolo. Raheem Mostert (or whoever runs the ball), Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Richard Sherman are more likely to win.
For those that don’t think Mahomes or Garoppollo are going to win, then DraftKings has another prop bet of interest:
- Position of MVP Award Winner
- Quarterback -230
- Running back/fullback +500
- Any Defender +550
- Wide receiver +750
- Tight End +900
- Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper +6600
So, the question you will need to ask yourself is if it isn’t a quarterback, then who? We can rule out the kicker/punter/long snapper option. If the 49ers win the game, if the NFC championship is any indication, Raheem Mostert will deserve it. But then the defense will have to have a great day as well to stop Patrick Mahomes.
Should the Chiefs win, Mahomes will be the logical choice unless someone scores multiple touchdowns after breaking plays open—which Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, or Damien Williams could easily do.
So—how should you bet?
Who you should bet on is something only you can decide, but as for how—parlay. If you think Mahomes will win, take him (+115), take ‘Yes’ on if a QB will win (-230), and take the position of to be a QB as well (-230).
A $100 bet will you $342.60. But make a four-leg parlay and add in the Chiefs to win (-112), and your winnings go up to $705.9.
If you are going to risk your money, you might as well try to win as much as you can.