With the dramatic end of Sunday night’s game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, the 2019 regular season came to an end. But more importantly, the stage was finally set for the postseason. That means we can finally take the odds on who will win the Super Bowl seriously.
These odds are not based on projections and expectations. They are based on the last four months of intense, hard-hitting football. While the favorite is obvious to even casual NFL observers, it is important to remember that anyone can win in the postseason.
All it takes is one bad play or one critical injury for even the biggest favorite to be taken down. So, with that cheery thought, is there an underdog worth betting on to win it all?
Before that question can be answered, it helps to know who the underdogs are. The odds following the regular season according to Caesars are:
- Baltimore Ravens +200
- Kansas City Chiefs +300
- San Francisco 49ers +350
- New Orleans Saints +600
- Green Bay Packers +1000
- New England Patriots +2000
- Seattle Seahawks +2200
- Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills +4000
- Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles +5000
- Tennessee Titans +7500
So– who are the underdogs?
Some would say anyone other than the favorite is an underdog. But no one would be surprised if the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, or New Orleans Saints were to win. For argument sake, let’s just say that everyone else is an underdog.
With odds of +1000, Green Bay only has a roughly nine percent chance of winning the big game, so that is probably fair. Now that we have established who the underdogs are, is there one worth betting on?
Green Bay finished the season 13-3, is quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers, and has a good defense. But they may be hard-pressed even to make it to the Super Bowl, let alone win it. The offense has struggled with consistency this season due to injuries and a new system getting installed.
They will not get past the 49ers (who destroyed them during the regular season) or Saints without more consistency on offense.
New England will be hard to count out until Tom Brady and/or Bill Belichick retire. But with how they have looked this season, it will take some real dedication (or having money to burn) to justify a bet on the Patriots.
Seattle is intriguing because they have two of the best magicians in the NFL in Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson. However, unless Marshawn Lynch can magically turn back into the real Beast Mode and give them a running game, it isn’t going to happen.
Injuries and the inconsistent play of Kirk Cousins make betting on the Vikings a hard pill to swallow. While Buffalo may slow the Ravens down, it is hard to imagine them scoring enough. Bill O’Brien will hamstring the Texans offense with over-conservative calls and keep them from having a shot.
As for the Eagles, they lucked into the postseason. Their long list of injuries will keep them from making it past Wild Card weekend. But the Tennessee Titans—they might be able to do it.
Ryan Tannehill has been a great find for the Titans this season and has the passing game humming. Between Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis, they have a run game that can really chew up some yards. Mike Vrabel’s defense will give whoever they face fits.
Does that mean they are going to win? No. Not at all. They will have to get past the Patriots in the wild card round. The Ravens in the divisional round will be tough. So will the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. But then they will also have to take down whoever makes it out of the NFC.
So—yeah, their chances are slim for a reason. But if you have a little money burning a hole in your pocket, there are worse bets you could make.