Super Bowl LV Odds: Who Is Worth Betting on To Win?
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
The Kansas City Chiefs entered the 2020 NFL season as defending Super Bowl champions and the favorites to win Super Bowl LV. With Patrick Mahomes leading one of the league's most dangerous offenses, Kansas City looked capable of winning consecutive championships.
But the shortest odds don't necessarily represent the best betting value.
In July 2020, several contenders offered considerably bigger payouts, including the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Seattle Seahawks.
Our original analysis identified Seattle at +2000 as an attractive long-shot selection, while Kansas City remained the safest choice among the favorites.
The season ultimately delivered a different outcome. Tampa Bay won Super Bowl LV, defeating Kansas City 31-9 on February 7, 2021.
Here's a look back at the original futures odds, the strongest betting arguments, and how those predictions performed.
The following odds were published in the original ATS.io article on July 23, 2020, with prices attributed to William Hill.
These are historical futures odds, retained to show how sportsbooks valued each team's championship chances before the 2020 NFL season.
Team | Super Bowl LV odds |
|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | +500 |
Baltimore Ravens | +650 |
San Francisco 49ers | +700 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1200 |
New Orleans Saints | +1200 |
Dallas Cowboys | +1500 |
New England Patriots | +1800 |
Seattle Seahawks | +2000 |
Green Bay Packers | +2000 |
Philadelphia Eagles | +2000 |
Buffalo Bills | +2500 |
Indianapolis Colts | +2500 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | +2500 |
Los Angeles Chargers | +2500 |
Minnesota Vikings | +3000 |
Los Angeles Rams | +3000 |
Chicago Bears | +4000 |
Atlanta Falcons | +4000 |
Tennessee Titans | +4000 |
Cleveland Browns | +4000 |
Las Vegas Raiders | +4000 |
Denver Broncos | +5000 |
New York Giants | +6000 |
Arizona Cardinals | +6000 |
Houston Texans | +6000 |
Detroit Lions | +10000 |
Miami Dolphins | +10000 |
New York Jets | +10000 |
Carolina Panthers | +12500 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | +20000 |
Washington | +20000 |
Cincinnati Bengals | +20000 |
Source: Original ATS.io article, July 23, 2020. All odds are historical and no longer available.
Kansas City was the clear favorite at +500, followed by Baltimore at +650 and San Francisco at +700.
Tampa Bay and New Orleans shared the next tier at +1200.
Seattle was available at +2000, offering a much larger potential return than the leading contenders.
For current markets, see our NFL betting odds and matchups.
Super Bowl futures bets involve selecting a team to win the championship before the event takes place.
The odds reflect the sportsbook's assessment of each team's chances, along with market demand and the bookmaker's margin.
American odds with a plus sign indicate the potential profit on a $100 winning wager.
For example:
Team | Historical odds | Profit on $100 winning bet | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | $500 | $600 |
Baltimore Ravens | +650 | $650 | $750 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1200 | $1,200 | $1,300 |
Seattle Seahawks | +2000 | $2,000 | $2,100 |
The larger potential payout comes with a lower implied probability of winning.
Kansas City's +500 odds implied a 16.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Seattle's +2000 odds implied approximately 4.8%.
Tampa Bay's +1200 price implied a 7.7% chance.
Those percentages are based on the odds alone and don't account for the sportsbook's margin.
The challenge for bettors was identifying which teams had a better chance of winning than their prices suggested.
Kansas City entered 2020 with an obvious advantage: the Chiefs had just won Super Bowl LIV.
Mahomes had established himself among the NFL's best quarterbacks, and the offense featured several elite playmakers.
Tyreek Hill provided explosive speed at wide receiver, Travis Kelce was one of the league's most productive tight ends, and Andy Reid had developed an offense capable of scoring quickly.
The Chiefs also returned much of the roster that had defeated San Francisco in the previous Super Bowl.
There were several reasons to support the Chiefs at +500.
Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City had one of the league's most talented quarterbacks, capable of producing big plays even when the offense wasn't operating smoothly.
Offensive continuity: Reid, Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce gave the Chiefs an established system heading into the season.
Playoff experience: Kansas City had already demonstrated its ability to win important postseason games.
Explosive scoring: The Chiefs could recover quickly from deficits, making them dangerous against almost any opponent.
Mahomes had also signed a major contract extension in July 2020, securing his long-term future with the franchise.
Kansas City looked well-positioned to compete for another championship.
The main concern was the price.
At +500, bettors were accepting a relatively modest futures return on a team that still needed to survive the regular season and win multiple playoff games.
Repeating as Super Bowl champions was also historically difficult.
The New England Patriots had been the most recent team to win consecutive titles, capturing Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX.
Kansas City had the talent to repeat, but the odds left less room for uncertainty than several other contenders.
The Chiefs were the safest selection among the favorites.
Their offensive talent and postseason experience made them difficult to oppose.
However, bettors seeking a larger return had reasons to consider alternatives.
Kansas City ultimately reached Super Bowl LV, confirming much of the original analysis, but failed to complete the repeat.
Baltimore entered the 2020 season following an outstanding 2019 regular season.
The Ravens had finished 14-2, and Lamar Jackson had won the NFL MVP award.
Their offense relied heavily on Jackson's rushing ability, a powerful ground game, and an approach that created difficult matchups for opposing defenses.
Baltimore's defense also gave the team a strong foundation.
At +650, the Ravens were considered Kansas City's biggest challenger in the AFC.
Jackson's athleticism made the Ravens difficult to defend.
Baltimore could control possession, create explosive rushing plays, and put pressure on opponents through its physical style.
The team also had a strong coaching staff under John Harbaugh.
Those strengths justified Baltimore's position near the top of the futures market.
The original ATS.io analysis questioned whether Baltimore's run-heavy offense could consistently succeed against elite postseason opponents.
Jackson had already produced an MVP season, but the Ravens needed to demonstrate they could win when forced into more traditional passing situations.
That concern mattered particularly in a potential playoff matchup with Kansas City.
The Chiefs could score quickly, making it difficult for opponents to rely entirely on controlling possession.
Baltimore finished the regular season 11-5.
The Ravens defeated Tennessee in the Wild Card Round before losing 17-3 to Buffalo in the Divisional Round.
Their championship futures bet therefore lost.
The result reinforced the original concern about Baltimore's ability to generate enough offense against strong playoff competition.
San Francisco entered 2020 after losing Super Bowl LIV to Kansas City.
The 49ers had built one of the NFL's most complete rosters, combining an effective rushing attack with a talented defense.
Kyle Shanahan's offensive system had helped San Francisco reach the championship game.
At +700, the 49ers were the leading NFC favorite.
San Francisco had several advantages.
Its defensive front could pressure quarterbacks without relying heavily on blitzes.
The offense featured a strong running game and playmakers capable of gaining yards after the catch.
Shanahan's scheme also created opportunities through motion, misdirection, and efficient passing concepts.
The roster had already demonstrated championship potential.
The original article questioned San Francisco's offensive balance.
The 49ers were effective when controlling the game through rushing, but their ability to win through the passing game remained a concern.
At +700, bettors were also paying a relatively short price for a team facing significant competition in the NFC.
San Francisco struggled with injuries throughout the 2020 season.
The 49ers finished 6-10 and missed the playoffs.
Their futures odds never translated into a serious championship challenge.
Tampa Bay entered 2020 as one of the most intriguing teams in the NFL.
Tom Brady had left New England after 20 seasons and six Super Bowl victories with the Patriots.
His arrival immediately changed expectations for the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay already had talented receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, while Rob Gronkowski joined Brady in Florida.
The Buccaneers also had a promising defense, including an effective pass rush and talented linebackers.
At +1200, Tampa Bay offered a considerably larger return than Kansas City, Baltimore, or San Francisco.
Brady's experience was the biggest attraction.
Few quarterbacks had demonstrated the same ability to perform in high-pressure postseason situations.
Tampa Bay also had enough offensive talent to compete with the NFL's strongest teams.
The question was how quickly Brady could develop chemistry with his new teammates.
The 2020 offseason was particularly challenging because the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted normal preparations and eliminated preseason games.
That uncertainty contributed to Tampa Bay's relatively generous odds.
The original article questioned whether Tampa Bay's defense could slow Kansas City's offense.
That was a reasonable concern in July 2020.
Mahomes had already shown he could beat strong defenses, and Tampa Bay still needed to demonstrate that its defensive talent could translate into championship-level performances.
As the season progressed, however, the Buccaneers developed into one of the league's strongest defensive teams.
That improvement became decisive in the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay finished the regular season 11-5 and entered the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
The Buccaneers then defeated Washington, New Orleans, and Green Bay to win the NFC championship.
They completed the run with a 31-9 victory over Kansas City in Super Bowl LV.
Tampa Bay +1200 was the winning selection among the original July 2020 futures prices.
A $100 bet at +1200 would have returned $1,200 in profit, plus the original stake.
New Orleans entered 2020 with a roster capable of challenging for the NFC championship.
Drew Brees remained the starting quarterback, and the Saints had established themselves as consistent playoff contenders under Sean Payton.
Alvin Kamara provided versatility at running back, while Michael Thomas was coming off an outstanding receiving season.
The defense also had experienced contributors.
At +1200, New Orleans was priced alongside Tampa Bay.
The Saints offered a strong combination of coaching, offensive experience, and defensive talent.
They had also demonstrated an ability to win consistently during the regular season.
Their familiarity with the NFC South gave them an advantage over a Tampa Bay team adjusting to a new quarterback.
Brees was nearing the end of his career.
His ability to remain effective over a full season and postseason was an important consideration.
New Orleans also had a history of disappointing playoff exits despite strong regular-season performances.
The Saints finished 12-4 and won the NFC South.
They defeated Chicago in the Wild Card Round but lost 30-20 to Tampa Bay in the Divisional Round.
New Orleans remained a strong contender, but the Buccaneers ultimately proved better equipped for the championship run.
Dallas entered 2020 with considerable offensive talent.
Dak Prescott led an offense featuring Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and rookie CeeDee Lamb.
The Cowboys also had a new head coach in Mike McCarthy.
At +1500, Dallas offered a larger potential payout than the top NFC contenders.
The Cowboys had the personnel to produce a high-scoring offense.
Prescott had developed into a productive quarterback, while Dallas possessed several capable receiving options.
If the defense improved, the Cowboys could challenge for the NFC East title and potentially make a playoff run.
The original analysis identified Dallas as a team with championship potential but considerable uncertainty.
The Cowboys needed better defensive performances and consistency against strong opponents.
The coaching transition also added another variable.
At +1500, the price was attractive only if Dallas could turn its talent into reliable results.
Prescott suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 5.
Dallas finished 6-10 and missed the playoffs.
The Cowboys never became a serious contender for Super Bowl LV.
Seattle was the original article's preferred alternative to Kansas City.
At +2000, the Seahawks offered a much larger potential return than the favorites.
Russell Wilson was an established elite quarterback, and Seattle had a productive rushing attack.
The defense was no longer the dominant unit that had helped the franchise reach consecutive Super Bowls earlier in the decade, but the Seahawks still had enough talent to compete.
Wilson was the central reason to consider the Seahawks.
His passing ability, mobility, and experience gave Seattle a chance against almost any opponent.
The offense also featured Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, providing Wilson with two dangerous receiving options.
Chris Carson gave Seattle a physical running game.
That combination offered a more balanced offensive approach than some of the other contenders.
At +2000, Seattle didn't need to be the most likely champion to represent an attractive futures bet.
The key question was whether its true championship chances exceeded the approximately 4.8% probability implied by the odds.
The Seahawks' defense had declined from the unit that dominated the NFL earlier in the decade.
Seattle needed better pass-rushing production and more consistent coverage.
Those weaknesses were significant in a conference featuring several strong offenses.
However, the original analysis considered Seattle's overall combination of quarterback play, rushing, and defensive potential strong enough to justify the price.
The original ATS.io article concluded that Seattle was worth backing at +2000.
Kansas City remained the safer selection, but Seattle offered a more attractive payout and a plausible path through the NFC.
The pick was based on Wilson's ability to lead the offense and the possibility that Seattle's defense would perform well enough in the postseason.
Seattle finished the 2020 regular season 12-4 and won the NFC West.
Wilson threw 40 touchdown passes, while the Seahawks averaged 28.7 points per game.
The regular season supported much of the original optimism.
However, Seattle lost 30-20 to the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card Round.
The Seahawks' championship run ended in their first playoff game.
Our original Seattle +2000 futures pick lost.
Seattle was a competitive regular-season team, but the value argument didn't translate into postseason success.
Several additional teams entered the season with realistic playoff ambitions.
Green Bay was available at the same price as Seattle.
Aaron Rodgers remained one of the NFL's most talented quarterbacks, and the Packers had reached the NFC Championship Game following the 2019 season.
Green Bay went 13-3 in 2020, and Rodgers won the league MVP award.
The Packers returned to the NFC Championship Game but lost 31-26 to Tampa Bay.
Green Bay came closer than Seattle to winning the title, but its +2000 futures bet also lost.
Buffalo entered 2020 with an improving roster and a promising young quarterback in Josh Allen.
At +2500, the Bills offered a larger return than most established contenders.
Allen took a major step forward during the season, helping Buffalo finish 13-3.
The Bills reached the AFC Championship Game before losing 38-24 to Kansas City.
Buffalo proved to be one of the strongest long-shot contenders, although it fell short of the Super Bowl.
Pittsburgh opened the season with 11 consecutive victories.
The Steelers eventually finished 12-4 and won the AFC North.
However, their late-season performances raised concerns about the offense.
Pittsburgh lost 48-37 to Cleveland in the Wild Card Round, ending its championship hopes.
The Rams had a talented defense featuring Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.
Their offense remained competitive under Sean McVay.
Los Angeles finished 10-6 and defeated Seattle in the Wild Card Round.
The Rams then lost to Green Bay in the Divisional Round.
They outperformed several teams with shorter preseason odds but didn't reach the championship game.
The original July 2020 article identified Kansas City as the safest choice and Seattle as the preferred value selection.
It also highlighted several NFC teams capable of reaching the Super Bowl.
Here's how those teams finished.
Team | July 2020 odds | Season outcome |
|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | Lost Super Bowl LV |
Baltimore Ravens | +650 | Lost Divisional Round |
San Francisco 49ers | +700 | Missed playoffs |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1200 | Won Super Bowl LV |
New Orleans Saints | +1200 | Lost Divisional Round |
Dallas Cowboys | +1500 | Missed playoffs |
Seattle Seahawks | +2000 | Lost Wild Card Round |
Green Bay Packers | +2000 | Lost NFC Championship |
Kansas City justified its position as the favorite by reaching the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay was the winning futures selection, returning $1,200 in profit for every $100 wagered at the original +1200 odds.
Seattle won its division but failed to advance beyond the opening playoff round.
The original value pick therefore missed, while one of the other highlighted NFC contenders won the championship.
Super Bowl LV took place on February 7, 2021, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
The Buccaneers became the first team in NFL history to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium.
They also became the first to win one there.
Tampa Bay defeated Kansas City 31-9 in a game dominated by the Buccaneers' defense.
Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 31 |
Category | Result |
|---|---|
Date | February 7, 2021 |
Venue | Raymond James Stadium |
Location | Tampa, Florida |
Winner | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Final score | 31-9 |
Super Bowl MVP | Tom Brady |
Winning head coach | Bruce Arians |
Losing head coach | Andy Reid |
Tampa Bay's championship | Second in franchise history |
Brady's championship | Seventh |
Brady completed 21 of 29 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns.
Two of those touchdown passes went to Gronkowski, while Antonio Brown caught the third.
Leonard Fournette added a 27-yard rushing touchdown.
Kansas City's offense never reached the end zone.
Mahomes completed 26 of 49 passes for 270 yards, throwing two interceptions.
The Buccaneers' pass rush disrupted Kansas City's protection throughout the game.
The result was a decisive victory for Tampa Bay and one of the more surprising Super Bowl outcomes given Kansas City's status as the favorite.
Several factors determined the outcome.
The Buccaneers consistently pressured Mahomes.
Kansas City's offensive line struggled to protect its quarterback, forcing him to scramble and attempt difficult throws.
Tampa Bay's defensive front played a major role in preventing Kansas City's offense from developing any rhythm.
Brady entered the game with six Super Bowl championships.
His experience helped Tampa Bay remain composed and capitalize on scoring opportunities.
He threw three touchdowns without an interception and earned his fifth Super Bowl MVP award.
The Chiefs had been one of the NFL's most productive offenses throughout the season.
However, Tampa Bay prevented them from scoring a touchdown.
Kansas City converted only three of 13 third-down attempts and committed 11 penalties for 120 yards.
Those mistakes made a comeback increasingly difficult.
The Buccaneers didn't need Brady to produce enormous passing numbers.
Their running game generated 145 yards, and the offense capitalized on favorable field position.
Tampa Bay controlled the game through efficient passing, physical rushing, and strong defense.
That combination proved more effective than Kansas City's explosive offensive approach.
The 2020 season provides several useful lessons about betting on NFL championship futures.
Kansas City was the July favorite at +500.
The Chiefs reached the championship game, but that wasn't enough for a futures bet to cash.
A Super Bowl winner bet requires the selected team to win the final game, regardless of its regular-season performance.
Seattle offered a potential $2,000 profit on a $100 wager at +2000.
The Seahawks finished 12-4 and won the NFC West, but lost their opening playoff game.
The price was attractive, but the team ultimately fell short.
A valuable futures bet requires a realistic championship probability that exceeds the probability implied by the odds.
Kansas City's offense was the main reason it entered as the favorite.
Tampa Bay's defense proved capable of neutralizing that advantage.
The result demonstrated the importance of considering how a team's strengths match up against potential postseason opponents.
Mahomes and Brady were both elite quarterbacks, but their situations differed considerably.
Brady benefited from strong protection, an effective running game, and a defense that consistently pressured Kansas City.
Mahomes faced much more difficult conditions.
The quarterback remains central to championship projections, but the supporting roster can be just as important.
Tampa Bay's +1200 July odds reflected the uncertainty surrounding Brady's first season with the Buccaneers.
As the team improved, the market adjusted.
Bettors who backed Tampa Bay early secured a better return than those who waited until the Buccaneers became established championship contenders.
Kansas City was the favorite in the original July 23, 2020 ATS.io odds table, listed at +500.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 31-9 on February 7, 2021.
The original July 2020 article listed Tampa Bay at +1200.
A winning $100 bet at +1200 would have produced $1,200 in profit, plus the original $100 stake.
The original article identified Seattle at +2000 as the preferred value pick, while Kansas City was considered the safer favorite.
No. Seattle finished 12-4 and won the NFC West but lost 30-20 to the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card Round.
Yes. Kansas City won the AFC championship before losing to Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl.
Tom Brady won the award after throwing three touchdown passes in Tampa Bay's 31-9 victory.
The game took place at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
Yes. The Buccaneers became the first NFL team to win a Super Bowl in its home stadium.
The original July 2020 futures market placed Kansas City firmly ahead of the competition.
That assessment was largely justified.
The Chiefs returned to the Super Bowl and remained one of the NFL's strongest teams throughout the season.
However, Tampa Bay ultimately offered the best winning return among the leading contenders.
At +1200, the Buccaneers rewarded bettors who believed Brady could quickly transform a talented but unproven roster into a championship team.
Seattle, our original value selection at +2000, produced a strong regular season but couldn't advance beyond the Wild Card Round.
The Seahawks' early exit demonstrated the risks associated with futures betting, even when a team meets many of its preseason expectations.
→ Our Take: Kansas City was the logical favorite, and Seattle offered an appealing price, but Tampa Bay at +1200 proved to be the winning bet. Brady's arrival attracted attention, yet the Buccaneers' defense ultimately made the difference. The biggest lesson from Super Bowl LV is that championship futures require more than identifying a talented offense or a strong regular-season team. The most valuable selection is the one with the right combination of price, roster quality, and postseason potential.
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Updated October 26, 2026
