The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season. While some things have changed, a lot of things have remained the same. As a result, the sportsbooks had a pretty good blueprint for the team and player props for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Each game is inherently different and the San Francisco 49ers are a different kind of matchup compared to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that still gave the sportsbooks an idea of what to do when it came to setting props for guys like Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Patrick Mahomes.
In this article, the Chiefs will be the lone focus. I’ll be looking at some team and player props for the Chiefs to try and find some value on the game. Both of these teams are a little bit difficult from a player props standpoint because there are so many weapons, but the Chiefs are especially tricky.
Will it be the Tyreek Hill Show like the first meeting between these two teams? Will it be the Travis Kelce Show as maybe the best tight end the game has ever seen? Will the extra focus on those two players push Mahomes to third or fourth options like Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins, or the running backs, Darrel Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire?
Who will stand out on defense? How will Harrison Butker, a deadly accurate field goal kicker with a PAT problem, fare in the game?
There are a lot of ways to attack the Chiefs in this game. One thing that is critically important and a focal point of all of the prop articles here at ATS is that you absolutely have to shop around for the best prices. It would be foolish to take Patrick Mahomes Over 325 passing yards at BetRivers when 320 is available at BetMGM. Similarly, laying -160 on Daniel Sorenson over 5.5 tackles at PointsBet when -140 is available at William Hill makes no sense.
You have to shop around for the best lines and also the best odds. Set yourself up for the greatest chance of success possible by shopping around for the best prices. Every effort has been made to do that in this article, but with lots of sportsbooks and lots of props, sometimes a better line is available somewhere else. You’ll have to do your due diligence to find out. That might mean having multiple accounts at multiple sportsbooks, so you may want to consider our top sportsbooks and see if signing up at another one makes sense.
Darrel Williams Rushing + Receiving Yards
Darrel Williams over 42.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards is -115 at William Hill. This prop is 45.5 at DraftKings. A lot of action and steam seems to be coming in on Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a better option than Williams, so maybe this comes down a bit. Williams did only see 30 offensive snaps last week, but also had 14 touches in the limited action. When he’s on the field, the Chiefs look to get him the ball.
Edwards-Helaire had more snaps, but fewer touches than Williams in his first game back. While CEH might be the bigger weapon, it would seem to me that working him back into the offense in the Super Bowl is an idea that Eric Bieniemy will shy away from.
Because I also like the Chiefs for the game, I see Williams as the guy that they’d prefer running the ball in crunch time here because he’s the healthier of the two backs. Williams is the one with double-digit carries in three of the last four games. He’s the one with at least 14 touches in three of the last four games. I think he gets chances here.
Frank Clark Sacks
Frank Clark is +150 to have Over 0.5 Sacks at DraftKings. A half-sack would push, so maybe you’d prefer +120 on “Will Frank Clark record a sack?” at FanDuel. Tom Brady doesn’t get sacked often. Between the regular season and the playoffs, he’s only had 23 over 19 games. However, he’s taken at least one sack in every game but one since Week 8 against the Giants.
Fellow Michigan Man Frank Clark got free for two sacks against the Bills last week as the Chiefs had one of their best coverage games of the season. I would look for him to have success here as well. Clark’s played 80% and 79% of the snaps through two playoff games. Once again, I like the Chiefs to win the game, which means a lot of passing situations for Brady, particularly in the second half.
The return isn’t all that great here from a price play standpoint, given that Clark had six sacks in 18 games and with the low number of sacks allowed by the Buccaneers, but call it something of a hunch in tandem with how I think the game plays out.
Kansas City Chiefs Players With A Rushing Attempt
This is a prop that I have not seen at most US markets, but it is offered with Superbook Sports and can likely be found in other places. The over/under is 4.5 with -110 on both sides at the Superbook. I like the over here. I took the under on this one last year and lost when Travis Kelce inexplicably got a rushing attempt.
Last season, though, the Chiefs were basically down the Damien Williams in the backfield and he had a monster game and could very well have won the MVP. I had his rushing + receiving yards over 81.5 and won that with ease.
In any event, this season, the Chiefs could conceivably give carries to Darrel Williams, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and maybe even Le’Veon Bell makes a cameo appearance. Patrick Mahomes will have a rushing attempt at some point. My handicap on the Tampa defense is that the Chiefs will want to spread them out, which means jet sweep opportunities or even backwards passes for Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and maybe even Sammy Watkins, if he’s actually healthy enough to play.
I got burned on this one last year with what I thought was a great bet, but in looking at this one, the Chiefs have three running back options plus Mahomes plus three receivers that could get a carry. I doubt we see the Kelce experiment again, but there are eight players that could get a rushing attempt and I only need five to cash the over here.
Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards
This is Under 27.5 (+100) at BetMGM or Under 28.5 (-112, DraftKings; -115, PointsBet; -120, William Hill). Any of those are fine, but you’d obviously like to take the DraftKings Under 28.5 or the BetMGM Under 27.5 at even money. The Chiefs threw Hardman a bone last game with the 50-yard rush after the muffed punt return, but he was only targeted three times for four yards. He had four catches for 58 yards against a pathetic Browns pass defense in the Divisional Round.
Hardman just isn’t a focal point of this offense. With Edwards-Helaire back and more from Williams, not to mention the possibility of Sammy Watkins, Hardman Under receiving yards is a good bet in my opinion.
Hardman played all 16 games and had just seven more targets and four more receptions than Watkins. Maybe Demarcus Robinson’s absence due to COVID protocols would give Hardman a better chance, but Robinson still has the chance of being cleared. In the event that both Robinson and Watkins are able to go, Hardman may only see special teams time unless he gets a rushing attempt.
I just don’t see him being a focus in this game for the Chiefs with so many other options and weapons.