Most of the time, the Super Bowl does come down to how well two people play—the quarterbacks. So, with that in mind, it is only natural for people to be interested in putting money down on how the quarterbacks produce.
This game is not going to be as quarterback dependent as many past Super Bowls. How things turn out for the Kansas City Chiefs will rely on the kind of game Patrick Mahomes has. But that is not the case for the 49ers.
Yes, they need him to play a mistake-free game, but they are not going to be looking for him to throw for 300 yards and four touchdowns. This should make some of the wagers easy calls. Depending on the parameters, that will not be the case for all.
For instance, FanDuel has three prop bets listed related to quarterbacks:
- Quarterback to pass for most yards?
- Jimmy Garoppolo +210
- Patrick Mahomes -280
- What will Jimmy Garoppolo throw first?
- Touchdown -230
- Interception +175
- What will Patrick Mahomes throw first?
- Touchdown -370
- Interception +260
The first one looks like a no-brainer, right? The 49ers are going to live by the run, so unless their defense shuts down Mahomes, going with Patrick Mahomes isn’t just the smart call—it’s the only call. Then again, the 49ers defense only allowed an average of 169.2 yards/game during the regular season.
But the Chiefs averaged 281.1 yards/game on offense, and the 49ers averaged 237.0 yards/game. So, Jimmy G could do it (but don’t count on it).
The other two seem like easy calls as well. San Francisco has been very calculated about when they pass, so the chances Garoppolo throws a touchdown before an interception are good. But it might not be as cut and dry for Mahomes.
Yes, Mahomes is a tremendous talent and has yet to throw a pick in postseason play. But he hasn’t faced the best secondary in football yet, either.
DraftKings is carrying a wide variety of bets as well and has Mahomes and Garoppolo facing off in a couple. Like FanDuel, they have a wager for who throws for more yards, but with different odds (Jimmy Garoppolo– +195; Patrick Mahomes– -250).
They also have a touchdown pass wager:
- Quarterback to throw more touchdown passes.
- Jimmy Garoppolo +175
- Patrick Mahomes -225
It almost seems foolish even to consider not betting on Mahomes here. The 49ers have made it clear they are going to live and die by the run. The Chiefs will use the run enough to keep the defense honest. So, take Mahomes to win this one (unless you hate money).
Incidentally, Garoppolo actually threw for more touchdowns during the regular (27) than Mahomes had (26). He also nearly threw for as many yards as Mahomes (3978 to 4031). But, to be fair, Mahomes did miss a couple of games.
However, the numbers do tell us that it is possible for Mahomes to be the less prolific passer in the Super Bowl. Crazier things have happened in the Super Bowl before.