The San Antonio Commanders have been one of the better teams in the Alliance of American Football all season. They haven’t always played the cleanest football, but they have been competitive in every game this season but one (the 31-11 loss to San Diego in Week Three).
The Orlando Apollos may be the only other team that can say that with a straight face. So, then how come oddsmakers are not giving the Commanders any respect?
The lack thereof was apparent last week going into their game against the Atlanta Legends. They had a 3-2 record and were going up against a team that opened the season 0-3 and looked bad in the process. Yet, somehow, the Legends were the favored team (-1.5).
Yes, the Legends have looked good on offense the last two weeks with Aaron Murray behind center (both wins). Logan Woodside occasionally struggles to keep the offense moving, but overall, he has done a good job this season.
Okay, so maybe the Legends defense is pretty good, and the Commanders defense does tend to give up big plays. That shouldn’t be enough to make the Commanders the underdog—but they were (the Commanders ended up winning, 37-6).
But the disrespect didn’t start there. At the midway point of the season, the 3-2 Commanders were on top of their division following a nice 29-25 win over Arizona. Yes, they nearly allowed the Hotshots to stage an epic comeback late in the fourth quarter—but they didn’t.
So, they were 3-2, in first place in their division, but still only had the fifth-best odds (via Bovada) to win the AAF Championship (+750). Orlando deserved to be on top of the list, but two teams the Commanders had just defeated, the Hotshots and Iron, both had better odds (+500).
San Antonio has split the season series with the other team with better odds (San Diego; +550).
That just doesn’t make sense. When you defeat a team and have a better record (or an identical one), it seems only logical that you would be favored over them. But that hasn’t been the case for the San Antonio Commanders.
Does that mean they aren’t that good after all? Or are the oddsmakers just not seeing something in San Antonio yet?
Should you put something down on them before they do–and the odds get shorter? Yes, yes you should—because it looks like it might be happening already. After last week’s dominant showing on both sides of the ball against Atlanta, San Antonio’s odds are now +500.
As they keep winning, their odds are bound to get shorter. What their odds are will not matter if they can’t make it to the end and win it, of course. They are probably going to face Arizona in the semifinal game (who they already beat) and will likely get Orlando in the championship game (who they played well against back in Wek Two but lost).
So, yeah—they could go on to win it all.