Odds On Who Will the New England Patriots Starting Quarterback Be In Week One?

Odds On Who Will the New England Patriots Starting Quarterback Be In Week One?

If you had banked on the New England Patriots signing Cam Newton back in March when the odds at DraftKings were +900, you are enjoying a pretty nice payday. Those that waited until May to do so are not enjoying as much of a payday (+175)– but they are enjoying one.

Now that the Patriots have signed Newton, there is another question many sportsbooks have deemed worth asking (and taking bets on): who is going to start at quarterback for the Patriots in Week One?

Newton is not guaranteed to start in Week One by any means. However, if the oddsmakers are right, he is practically a lock to do so:

  • QB to take the first snap in Regular Season—Week 1 (BetMGM)
    • Newton -358
    • Stidham +300
    • Hoyer +2500
    • Lewerke +6500
  • Patriots Starting Quarterback (PointsBet)
    • Jarrett Stidham +450
    • Cam Newton -400
    • Brian Hoyer +1400
  • Patriots Week 1 Starting QB (FoxBet)
    • Cam Newton -400
    • Jarrett Stidham +300
    • Brian Hoyer +1800
  • Week 1 Starting Quarterback for the Patriots 2020/2021 (DraftKings)
    • Cam Newton -715
    • Jarrett Stidham +450
    • Brian Hoyer +3300

According to those odds, Newton has anywhere from a 78.17 to 87.73 percent chance to start in Week One. Stidham’s best shot comes in at just 25 percent.

It seems like Newton is an overwhelming favorite, and it is not hard to understand why. He’s been a starter since entering the league back in 2011. Newton has guided his team to the playoffs four times and made it to the Super Bowl once (2015)—which was also the year he won league MVP honors.

Stidham will be going into his second year. He appeared in three games last season throwing four passes and completing just two for 14 yards. In his limited time, he did not throw a touchdown pass to a Patriot, but he did throw an interception that was returned 61 yards for a score.

From what little we have seen of Stidham in the regular season, it would appear as if starting him would be a mistake. His supporters, however, would point to his preseason play, which was impressive. Detractors will be quick to say it was the only preseason, though. Anyone could look like a stud during a preseason game.

So—who should you bet on?

It is safe to say you don’t have to wonder if Brian Hoyer or Brian Lewerke is worth betting on. They aren’t.

Newton is reportedly healthy and completely recovered from the Lisfranc injury that ended his season last year. However, that kind of injury has a nasty habit of popping back up. With his physical style of play, Newton is always going to be an injury risk—especially at his age (31).

Stidham was encouraging against scrubs and not so encouraging in a real game. Belichick has appeared confident in him. But if he is, then why sign Newton? Well, because they got him for league minimum (with incentives if he plays).

What team wouldn’t want a former MVP as a QB2 for that price?

With the odds being what they are at just about every book—take Stidham. There are still too many question marks surrounding Newton’s health, despite the fact he passed a physical in March. Then there is the possibility he ends up more like Chad Ochocinco than Randy Moss.

We have no idea if he can fall in line with the ‘Patriot Way.’ On the other hand, Stidham has already lived the ‘Patriot Way’ and knows the offense. Now, he might not finish the season as QB1, but he will start in Week One.

 

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