When the NFL free agency frenzy was at its most intense, many sportsbooks started to adjust their odds and projections for the 2019 NFL season. Some of the changes were kind of dramatic as some of the moves made by teams were. But now that the dust has settled, so did the need for sportsbooks to adjust their odds and projections.
That makes the win total projections recently posted by one Vegas sportsbook, CG Technology, as up to date as they can be. These projections are bound to be altered once again once the draft is complete. But for now, the following are the projected win totals for all 32 teams according to CG Technology:
- Patriots 11
- Chiefs, Rams, and Saints 10.5
- Chargers 10
- Bears, Colts, and Eagles 9.5
- Browns, Packers, Steelers, and Vikings 9
- Cowboys, Falcons, Ravens, Seahawks, Texans, and Titans 8.5
- 49ers, Jaguars, and Panthers 8
- Broncos, Jets, and Lions 7
- Bengals, Bills, Buccaneers, Giants, Raiders, and Redskins 6
- Cardinals and Dolphins 5
It should come as no surprise that the defending Super Bowl champions come in with the highest projected total, 11 games. However, New England’s total may be the toughest one amongst all 32 teams to place a wager on.
On the one hand, the Patriots haven’t won fewer than 11 games since the 2009 season when they won only ten. Since then, they have won more than 11 games each season leading up to last season’s 11-game total.
But they got off to an uncharacteristic slow start last season. Surely, the Patriots will do better this season, right? Or will Tom Brady start to look more like a 42-year old quarterback and struggle some? Maybe he misses Rob Gronkowski more than expected, and the defense slips a little after losing a few guys to free agency.
There is also the distinct possibility that the Patriots are as dominant as ever. No one rolls with personnel changes quite like Bill Belichick does.
Jets fans are probably hoping that their team can improve by more than three wins (they won four last year; projected to win seven) after the fortune the team spent in free agency. With the beef that their $211 million spending spree added to their defense and the addition of Le’Veon Bell to the offense, it is not hard to imagine them hitting eight wins.
Oddsmakers must feel that the Chiefs, Rams, and Saints are going to regress. All three are projected to win just 10.5 but won 12, 13, and 13 last season.
Second-year starters do often see their production regress since they are not an unknown commodity to defenses anymore. That could account for a two-game drop to ten wins for the Chiefs this season. If the Rams do not get their run game issues with Todd Gurley figured out, they are going to struggle even to win ten games.
As for the Saints, there is no reason to think they are going to dip more than a couple of games. Losing Mark Ingram is not going to make that big of a difference.
Cases could be made for most teams to go over or under their projection. So, it’s a good thing we all have a few months to debate all the potential outcomes before the season starts.